May. 4th, 2016

drwex: (Troll)
Ted Cruz supporters. Dude is gone. Contested convention is gone. Trump not only out-maneuvered you once he figured out the election of delegates was a separate thing, he just crushed your guy in (effectively) a 1:1 contest.

#stopTrump people. I believe the phrase is bend over and kiss your knees, people. Actually I think this camp will split into three. Camp 1 is the "anyone but Hilary" camp and they'll eat crow and support Trump. Camp 2 is the "fukkit I'm going home camp" and they'll slink away quietly to sulk in front of their favorite talk shows. Camp 3 is the future-seekers (see particularly Koch) who are going to just pretend there isn't a presidential contest and spend their money and time down-ticket, trying to hold onto Congress. People with their eyes firmly on 2020 are not necessarily stupid but I do think it's somewhat dangerous to pretend nothing of political import will happen for four years.

Clinton supporters. Damn, she should have won. At least squeaked it out. Instead, Sanders squeaked another win, about 4 percentage points I think. Clinton maintains her delegate lead but she cannot focus on Trump now. She needs to seal this deal. California might hand it to her, but that's still in the future. I expect we'll see the first wave of anti-Hilary Trump ads on the air before that.

Sanders supporters. At some point we are going to have to face the reality that Clinton's continued losses are pointing up her weaknesses as a national candidate. I support Sanders' run because it's shaping the debate in ways I like and because earlier I felt he was helping her sharpen for challenges the Republicans are going to throw at her. But things have gotten way nastier in the past month and that's not helping either candidate. If Sanders had lost he could have bowed gracefully, given a good speech about party unity (I note that Sen Warren gave a careful statement about her opposition to Trump recently) and then suspended his campaign. He can't do that now. Again, I look to California to settle this.


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