drwex: (Default)
drwex ([personal profile] drwex) wrote 2011-06-27 06:32 pm (UTC)

I dont' think so

I don't even expect any of the DOMA cases to reach the stage of requesting cert by next year. The Prop 8 challenge might make it, but that would be on different grounds and will almost certainly be ruled and remanded.

SCOTUS won't grant cert until multiple Circuits render conflicting opinions on DOMA which is quite unlikely in the near future.

In addition, both sides have a strong interest in keeping DOMA cases away from SCOTUS. The pro-equality forces would not be certain on how Kennedy would swing and they are having more success at the state level anyway. The anti- forces have to worry that Scalito or Thomas might rule against them on states' rights grounds. The Feds messing in marriage is itself problematic. This is why they worked so hard to get state-level DOMA laws passed even after the Federal DOMA was well in place.

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