drwex: (Default)
Here's the public version: https://thebaffler.com/latest/necessary-anger-penny

Though you really should join her Patreon and read the Director's Cut, which is better.

After she finishes calling Boris Johnson a shitclown she lists some of the destruction that has been wrought on Britain in the last nine years:

  • one in three children now live in poverty

  • this Christmas more than two million people will rely on [food banks, previously almost unknown] to survive

  • Homelessness has more than doubled

  • Average student debt has nearly tripled

  • closed nearly eight hundred libraries


And at the end of the day enough people in a lot of swing districts would rather live with that than admit people of color, of non-Christian religions, and of other national origins or ancestry are equal human beings.

If that doesn't scare the daylights out of you, then imagine how they'd've voted if the economy was good... and remember that the US economy is humming along, at least for the white upper classes.
The truth is that lying works. That’s one of many truths currently dawning like the morning after a war. Lying works, and lying outrageously and repeatedly in the face of blatant evidence to the contrary works even better. Integrity and decency are no longer seen as leadership qualities. Boris Johnson is a liar. Everyone knows it. In one of the TV debates, the studio audience [...] all laughed at him. And they still voted for him.

I'd like everyone to pause for a moment and remember than in the US you can fly into Reagan National Airport and a few miles away go driving on Jefferson Davis Highway. This shit is not new, and 'the judgment of history' is not going to save us.
This election was a test-case for a new political playbook. The institutions of British democracy—Parliament, the press, the high courts—are all founded on the assumption that people will play vaguely by the rules and behave with basic decency. They are not equipped to handle naked, shameless dishonesty or upfront cheating, because on some level they don’t want to be. People who retain a shred of faith in the institutions of state don’t want to acknowledge that they’ve being taken to the cleaners by a bunch of dangerous con artists in aristocratic drag.

This is equally true of the US and if our side doesn't want to get curb-stomped the way Labor did we need to wise up and start fighting back. And stop f'ing fighting with each other. Look at the current Presidential field and ask yourself "which of these people will actually fight and not try to do deals that sell out a chunk of our family, or cross the aisle and be bipartisan so rich people can get richer?"

You can't be bipartisan with a rabid mongrel.

It was not long ago that Werner Herzog posted his commentary that Americans are just now waking up to the reality that Germans woke up to 87 years ago. About 1/3 of our citizens would like to kill, enslave, or expel another 1/3 while the final 1/3 stands by and gasps.

I know which 3rd I'm in and I'm not happy about it.
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Last night we went to a vigil in Arlington in response to a couple of the recent hate crimes. News here: https://www.masslive.com/news/2019/05/joint-terrorism-task-force-investigating-suspicious-fires-set-at-jewish-institutions-in-arlington-needham.html

I hate that I have to write "a couple of the..." because there isn't just one. There were two local, and at the time this was happening, a similar attempted firebombing happened in the Chicago area. The targets there were friends-of-friends; the people targeted in Arlington were people we know. People who taught the kids for their b'nei mitzvot. I have ALL the feels and no idea what to do about any of it.

No persons were harmed and property damage was much less than it might have been. Still, a hate crime not just directed at my marginal group but at people I specifically know is a qualitative step change in the atmosphere.

Last night's vigil/rally of support was well-attended. We essentially filled Arlington Town Hall (moved indoors by last-minute rain). Lots of officials turned out in support (*) and the acting Chief of Police spoke. Everyone thanked the police, who have apparently been diligent in pursuit of the attackers so far. As noted, this is also a qualitative difference. Nobody in Arlington is claiming that the bombers are "fine people", and you can't underrate having public support from government and law enforcement.

"Love Lives Here" as a slogan to complement "Hate Has No Home Here" is an invention and artistry from a friend of ours. I don't think she has a DW or site I can link to; she's helped with art and production work on several Arisias. The slogan is available on postcards and signs, in English and Hebrew. She got at least general acknowledgement from the podium, along with several of the hand-crafted signs students had made. One of those signs said "Please don't bomb my rabbi" which hit me RIGHT in the feels.

After the vigil we got to go out with her and much of her family, which was a nice social for the adults even if the teens were largely anti-social.

I've been trying to find good coherent words about this since last week when I heard about the attack. I don't have any. At the vigil the Rabbi said that his response to "what can I do" was "do a mitzvah". (**) I appreciate that sentiment and I can't help thinking that the greatest mitzvah would be to defeat the Hater in Chief so we don't have four more years of this kind of filth feeling it's OK to show themselves in the daylight.

Hair Furor didn't create these monsters, and yet he is still their great champion. I don't imagine that this is a "cut the head off the snake and the body will die" moment, but I can't think of anything more nationally effective right now.


(*) There was also an unscheduled appearance by a consular official from Israel, whose verbal hypocrisy caused me to grind my teeth rather a lot. Talking about how Israel stands against hate is not very convincing when you represent a government that is actively harming refugees and Jews of color, while perpetuating a discriminatory national system, and an occupation with no end in sight. I consider myself a Zionist, and see hate crimes like these and worse worldwide as a reason for Israel to exist and to be supported. But I hate that a movement I grew up associating with egalitarian socialism has been taken over by fascistic religious fundamentalists and perverted to their ends.

(**) Literally, following a commandment. More generally, doing a good deed. It's a very Jewish form of "pay it forward" because we believe that putting out goodness into the world is its own reward. Jews don't follow the commandments - do mitzvot - because we're afraid we'll go to (Christian style) Hell if we don't. We do it because fixing the world begins with fixing oneself, and fixing oneself is both a personal reward - you're a better person - and a global good because you get to live in a world with more healthy better people.
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Look, I get it. This is red meat for both bases. Also, there's a lot not to like about Nancy Pelosi and I do want to see new leadership for the Democratic party. But on this she is absolutely right: without Republican support, impeachment is a non-starter.

Let's imagine for a second you could somehow draw up articles of impeachment and get them passed. What, exactly, do you think the Senate would do? Did any of you watch even a sampler of the just-concluded Kavanaugh hearings? If that debacle did not convince you that the Rs absolutely will line up and support a criminal in the face of everything else then I don't know what to say to you.

What would happen is there'd be a quick "trial", Trump would get to make a lot of speeches and angry denunciations, and he'd be acquitted. He'd have a major triumph and we would look petty and stupid. Which, frankly, we would be. Maybe people are hoping the prospect would enrage this particular man-baby so much he'd have a coronary on the spot. So then you get President Pence, a man who thinks torturing people simply for being gay is OK, so long as you do it in some god's name.

Running against Trump is not the same things as being the "anything but Trump" or "at least we're not Trump" party. The former put a lot of wind in sails this November or we wouldn't even be having this discussion. I can't see any strategy right now that's better than forcing Trump to run on his record. Just produce some candidates he can't destroy, for the luvvapete.

The Democrats will be moving into a position to do more oversight and inquiries and they should do so. I hear Zinke is sweating bullets, as well he should. Lots of pressure can be put on, lots of light shone into corners this administration would rather keep dark. That's a way better use of time and resources than a doomed push for impeachment.

Like it or not, we're going to have to do this all over again in two years. By then we better have something worth running on.
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I am angry and frustrated that Arisia has eaten so much of my energy that I've had to pull back from doing political things, and many social things. The phrase "oh FUCK no" is appearing my vocabulary more and more often, as I just don't have the patience for things I'd normally shrug off or leave for other people to deal with.

Like, no, you can NOT divert this argument into stupid definition wars. Focus on fixing the problem or get the hell out of my way.

Like, no, you can NOT use some passive-aggressive BS to critique another staffer. True, I don't get along with them all that well but you don't do that to my colleagues. Not on my watch. My personal dislike for P-A BS far exceeds my dislike for this one individual.

Meanwhile, on the politics front I read this morning that early turnout in Texas exceeds the _entire_ turnout for the last midterms, and I cried a little bit.

Yesterday I found out about the "Massholes not Assholes" video (seriously, watch this if you haven't - https://vimeo.com/298693753) from my Congressman's Twitter feed. I cried a bit at that, too.

Here's the thing: if we can save the entire freakin' country, we can sure as hell save one volunteer organization. Time to lace up your boots, people. We got work to do. And as it has been said: Lead, follow, or get out of the way.
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For those who haven't been following politics lately, Senator Warren has published a DNA test that purports to show she has Native American ancestry. She's responding to DJT's taunts the last time this topic came up. Specifically, he stated that he'd donate a million to a charity of her choice if she took a DNA test that showed Native ancestry.

Fundamentally, the question is "why" (related, "why now") and here's my theory about what's going on...

On the one hand, no Native person I know thinks DNA matters or shows anything relevant. I sympathize with this a lot because Jews have a similar stance. You don't have Jewish "blood" or anything like that. You have parents, a heritage, an identity, and a set of beliefs and practices. If Native Americans accept you as a member of one of their nations (tribes) then you are. Periodfullstop. Trying to make this be about DNA is deeply uncomfortable, as are the discussions of "well, we didn't consider her ancestry or Native status in this hiring decision" and similar. So why take on all these negatives? (*)

I think what's happening is that this is a trial balloon for 2020. It's not a coincidence that this is happening after she has set up field offices in all 50 states - I bet all of them are testing how this message is playing in their states. Warren is putting DJT on the spot. He can say "no I didn't say that" and she can say "here's the footage of you saying that." He can say, "Well, I meant this other thing" and she can say "You said do X; I did X, now pay up."

Her message is simple, direct, and combative. Responses to it end up sounding evasive and weak. Sound familiar? Warren is taking a page from the playbook DJT used to control the narrative and steamroll his primary opponents. He made himself look like a fighter and those other guys look mealy-mouthed; he got the equivalent of billions of free publicity by making his issues the ones that topped the news tickers more or less constantly.

If this works, expect to see more like this. Every candidate who thinks they're going to go up against Trump is going to need a strategy and they're going to have to trial that strategy, tweak it and refine it. Warren is smart; she's a planner and a forward-thinker. If this doesn't work expect her to come back with something new in a few weeks.

If I was an advisor, I'd urge her to head to North Dakota and other states where ID laws are being used to suppress Native voting. She'd use this issue to jump into a topic that is very 2018 relevant - who gets to vote and who decides that. If that works, she'll keep her name and her chosen issue in the public eye, while building good will with both marginalized voters and the Democratic base in general.

I'm also impressed that she's leaning in on the "women can't show anger/be combative" issue. I think she has calculated that the support she'll pick up from women outweighs the support she'd lose from (older) men who get uncomfortable when women show anger. Most of those guys wouldn't have voted for her anyway. She's flying directly into the "be civil" headwinds and I think it's going to help her. I doubt anyone who isn't combative is going to make any inroads with DJT dominating the media.

(*) I hope she's got Native advisers on her staff who can help her navigate these waters.
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Like a number of other commentators I've largely given up on trying to keep up with the stream of head-snapping political news. By the time I've sat down to digest and understand a political story, and decided I have something thoughtful to say, it's gone like Dorothy's house in the tornado.

Fortunately, there are people who get paid to do that kind of longer-arc analysis and it looks like one of them may have landed a big one. Professor Kathleen Hall Jamieson, of UPenn's Annenberg School and a founder of factcheck.org, is about to release what ought to be a bombshell of a political book.

https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2018/10/01/how-russia-helped-to-swing-the-election-for-trump

In the current climate I doubt this kind of thing will make an impact - positions are already hardened and nobody who still backs Trump will actually care about the subtle distinctions between "foreign agent" and "useful idiot" for Russia. Congress isn't going to prosecute either charge, anyway, and the President will continue to obstruct efforts to protect elections and investigate past malfeasance by those around him. The importance of this book is as historical record, as well as proof-in-fact.

As the New Yorker piece points out, much has been made of the idea that we "can't know" what influence Russia had and what the effect of that influence was. Professor Jamieson's scholarship stands in contrast to that dismissive attitude and is important in showing how we can actively set and follow standards for investigation. Airtight proof, such as you'd want in a criminal case, is extremely hard to come by - it's virtually unheard-of in social science research. But the "preponderance of evidence" standard is also viable, and something we use for many matters. That seems to be what Jamieson is going for here.

I will want to read this book, but the New Yorker delivers the punchline that has been circulating for some time - the election was tipped by getting people who would have voted to stay home, and encouraging others to come out. It was remarkably effective, using a few tens of thousands to counterweight three million. The question now is, what do you do about it?

Shana Tova

Sep. 11th, 2018 05:01 pm
drwex: (pogo)
Happy New Year. For the first time in a while I took off from work on the first day of Rosh Hashona. I still don't do shul, but I was hoping to get some walking and thinking time.

The walking, not so much. Between the weather (yuk) and Pygment's foot problems (double yuk) the walking didn't happen. Thinking has been ongoing for weeks now. I feel fortunate that I've been able to connect (via Twitter) with people who are both Jewish - and so steeped in the cultural traditions and religious teachings I value - and politically aligned.

A long time ago I walked out of two synagogues two years in a row and haven't gone back since (once it was over politics and once it was over money; if you want the stories, ask). I've felt a deep alienation between the beliefs that I think are core to the ethics I hold and the way the religion is practiced. The acceleration of modern Zionism toward fascist racism has only made this worse. Pygment pointed out (correctly I think) that in this Twitter community I've found people I can look up to and learn from. One of the things that made MIT so special for me was that I was literally surrounded by such people; since leaving there it's been hard to connect with those kinds of people. Now, again, I have found a couple people who share values I hold - sanctity of life, duty to the stranger, the deep sense that we are obliged not to turn our backs on people in need (for we were once refugees in Egypt comma dammit) and who can talk to those values from a Jewish perspective.

Every time I try to write about how I feel about this time of year, what I feel obliged to do, and how I might undertake that work in the present climate of the US I end up with incoherent babble. I'm not doing it well here, either, so forgive me if I revert to standard formulas.

If I have harmed you in the past, I hope you will feel OK telling me about it and pointing out how I might make up for that harm. I will try hard to do the work, and not to make the same mistakes again.
drwex: (Troll)
A week away plus I mostly don't read on weekends means I'm way behind. I might catch up, or not. Please link me to things you think I should read.

In exchange, here's an interesting link from 538 - https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/what-do-men-think-it-means-to-be-a-man/

A survey of 1600 men on what they think it takes to be a man. Run by two women. Data on github so you can play with it yourself if you like. Very 21st century.

This:
A majority of men in the workplace say they haven’t rethought their on-the-job behavior in the wake of #MeToo

might be the scariest thing I've read in a while. Along with the suggestion that there are "no advantages" to being a man at work it makes me feel like we've got a really long way to go.
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Question: Can Trump pardon himself?

(it's important to contextualize the following theorizing with "I am not a lawyer". Then again, neither is Trump and he also has idiots on his legal team, a handicap I don't have. Although I use "he" throughout this entry I think the logic would apply equally if Ms Clinton or any other-gendered person was president.)

The question is one of those that law professors love to swat around abstractly. The closest we've ever gotten to a real formulation of the question is, reputedly, Nixon asking it of his Justice Department. He got back a "hell no!" answer, apparently. Then again, I recently discovered that Nixon did not want Ford's pardon, which contradicted a long-held belief so I remain open to learning new things.

I also believe the answer is "no" but not because it's written into the Constitution; rather, I think it's so evidently no that the Founders never considered it necessary to write down. To understand that, let's go back to some basics.

First, why does the President have a pardon power in the first place? Why write that into the Constitution? The best theory I've heard (and I'm also not a Constitutional scholar, so take this with a grain of salt) is that Article II enumerates a Presidential pardon power because the President is also head of the branch of government that prosecutes crimes. Prosecutors have discretion about which crimes to pursue, and the pardon power then gives that branch the ability to say "these are the things that we as a society choose to forgive; those people are considered to have paid their debt and can be forgiven."

Like any discretionary power it can be abused, but this is the core justification - somewhere, there must be a way to state what we as a society forgive and that power should not rest with those who make the laws nor with those who decide if the laws have been broken. It's true that the pardon power was traditionally vested in monarchs, but even though nobody wanted the new Executive to be a king, they left this in.

The Constitution is both weirdly silent and weirdly specific in its notion of crimes. That is because at the time of framing, all crime was state crime and as such a person - including the President - would be prosecuted for such crimes. The Presidential pardon power doesn't extend to state crimes so the framers likely anticipated that a President would not be able to pardon himself for the vast majority of possible infractions. It's pretty well accepted that the founders did not imagine the growth and eventual supremacy of the Federal government. Estimates I've seen say that there are now over 3600 enumerated Federal crimes.

By contrast, the only three specific Constitutional crimes are piracy, counterfeiting, and treason. Elsewhere, the Constitution limits what a President can pardon for, specifically excluding impeachable offenses. But then the language of what someone can be impeached for is itself vague (high crimes and misdemeanors). So the President can, in theory, pardon someone else for treason, even a treason he's involved in (how apropos!) but the remedy for that is impeachment.

So the President can pardon and that's why; can he self-pardon? The framing of having trials that are outside the presidential prerogative (state level) and the ideal of both the Declaration and the Constitution establishing no one as above the law lead me to say no, because the alternative is a contradiction. That is, if the President can self-pardon then he becomes above the law. A presidential self-pardon violates the commonly accepted intent of the founding documents.

Unfortunately, the law doesn't operate by this kind of logic. It operates by reference to original sources (laws, the Constitution) and precedents (previous relevant decisions). This is what permits Trump and his legal monkeys to claim that he can self-pardon. There's nothing in the source documents, nor is there good case law, to say the opposite. You have to go back to contemporary writings, such as The Federalist (http://www.constitution.org/fed/federa10.htm) where you find language like: "No man is allowed to be a judge in his own cause..."

Ironically, should this matter ever come to the courts, the people most likely to refer to these types of documents are the so-called Originalists, of whom the late Justice Scalia was probably best known. That we might have to rely on the most right-wing conservatives to defend us against a rogue president seems like the most 2018 thing this week. But stay tuned, it's only Thursday.
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Almost all the takes I've seen on this have been simplistic and generally wrong, or at least built on top of a set of assumptions that are, at best, unclear. I'm going to noodle at this for a bit.
likely this is boring to most people, so I cut )
I think I understand the arguments for and against and I wish I felt it was easy to state a clear position but each lap around this mental track just further convinces me there is no easy answer. I can understand each side's position without agreeing to it, and I can become more convinced that those who think there's an obvious easy answer are wrong. But that's it, so far.
drwex: (pogo)
https://www.popehat.com/2018/02/25/kenneth-eng-is-on-the-other-side-of-viral-now/

Popehat brings us the sad story of a person who seems to be suffering from persistent mental illness, a disease that seems to be resisting treatment. It's a cautionary tale in today's discussion of (*handwave*) treatment for mental illness as a (bullshit) "solution" to our problems of gun violence.

Here we learn of a person who got help and support far greater than the average, whose behavior identified them as a possible threat, and who seems to be beyond our help. G-d forbid this guy picks up a mass murder weapon.
drwex: (zero)
Billy Graham died this week, age 99.

They say only the good die young. Seems about right.

One of the great teachings I find in the Passover story is when G-d admonishes the freed slaves for celebrating the drowning of the Egyptian army. How can you dance when my children are dying?

One can take from this the idea that all people are children of G-d and deserve respect and compassion (Graham seems to have missed this memo). One can take from it that even people who commit great evils (check!) deserve compassion and respect. One can take from it that we are not fit to judge the fates of others; that it is up to us to live our best lives and leave G-d to sort it out in the end.

I know there are those who take these lessons to heart and follow them better than I. I can't celebrate Graham's death, but I can at least be grateful that he can no longer directly harm people like me, my family, and others I care about.

Anyone know if it's actually illegal to dance on someone's grave? Asking for a friend...
drwex: (pogo)
Backgrounder: Arisia has a Code of Conduct. It's an official corporate policy that every year's convention uses and every attendee must agree to abide by. If you don't agree, we refund your money on the spot. Read it here: https://www.arisia.org/Code-of-Conduct

Every year we get a few people complaining about the CoC, including one person (whom I shall call Complaining Person or CP) who recently asserted that it was one reason they don't go to Arisia. Now, I'm an old white dude myself. I've been to every Arisia since #2 and worked most of them. And Old White Dude drwex gets it.

CP is right - a Code of Conduct you don't agree with, or don't think will be enforced fairly, is a very fine and valid reason not to attend a gathering, be it a SF/F convention or other. Old White Dude drwex does not need any CoC - I move within a big sturdy privilege bubble and I don't get upset anymore when people call me "faggot" because I wear skirts or kilts, nor do I have strangers trying to stare down my shirt or making unwanted and prolonged physical contact with me.

You know who needs this Code of Conduct? My female-bodied partner. My trans children. My friends whose skin colors, hair styles, names, gender expressions, and facial appearances mark them indelibly as Other and for whom response to Other-ness is often frightening, intimidating, excluding, demeaning, or downright harmful.

I mentioned that I'd worked "most" of the cons. I stopped working, for a time, but came back in part because Arisia was making a Code of Conduct and trying to create a better place. Arisia next year will have been operational for 30 years. That's a remarkable run for any convention and I don't see any practical reason it couldn't go on for another 30. I won't be around then, I suspect. But my kids will be, and maybe they'll do what I did - wheel their babies out of the hotel room early in the morning so Active Kid can get some noisy time and not wake the sleeping parent. I came back to Arisia to help build the convention I want to pass on to my kids. I'm still doing it, and the CoC plus supporting structures are foundational pillars of that.

Another thing Complaining Person objected to is that "only some" behavior that violates the CoC gets dealt with. Again, CP is right. We don't deal with violations we don't know about. If CP reported a CoC violation and didn't get a good response from us, we owe CP an apology and to do better in the future. This year, Arisia implemented an Incident Response Team (IRT) structure based on our past experience and experiences at a Worldcon. The IRT is to try improving how we find out about, how we record, and how we respond to incidents.

The IRT isn't perfect. I have concerns about it; I've expressed those concerns. I can say with confidence that everyone in Arisia, from the Conchairs on down and from the Corporate President & VP heard my concerns and responded seriously to them. Some changes have been made. I think more need to be made and I plan to continue working with people on this so by Arisia 2019 we can get some improvements implemented.

Complaining Person is right, we let some things go that should not be let go. Sometimes we know about incidents and don't respond properly. Sometimes we drop the ball on follow-up, or on caring for people who've been subject to CoC-violating behavior. Sometimes we have bad judgment. Arisia isn't a monolithic black box - it's a complex and often self-contradictory mass of individual people and I don't think I've ever seen anything this complex function in an error-free way. That's not an excuse, that's just a fact of life, especially in an all-volunteer organization. As I said, we owe it to every past, present, and future attendee to do better.

There's no good ending to this post because the story isn't over. I respect Complaining Person's choice, even as I disagree with it. I don't know how we could resolve our disagreement. So I'll close with this, which I said last Arisia post: sometimes people are why we get to have nice things.

See some of you tomorrow...
drwex: (Default)
Nun, Gimel, Hey, Shin - the four letters on the dreidel - are an acronym for this phrase, meaning "a great miracle happened there". In Israel the last word becomes "Po", for here. It's been suggested we should send "po" dreidels to Alabama. Let's talk about that for a bit.

Like every election in this new world, analyzing this thing is like Rashomon: everyone has a story; the stories share elements; where does reality lie?

Story 1: how far have we fallen that we treat it as a miracle when a mediocre Republicrat squeaks out a victory by less than 2% of the vote against a racist, antisemitic, homophobic, transphobic child molester?

In this story the Trumpists remain a solid festering bloc of hatred. On the one hand choosing party over principles - any vote that will push forward a destructive, starve-the-poor-to-feed-the-rich agenda is an OK vote. The GOP backed Moore, despite some early pearl-clutching. When the chips were down, they went all-in for hatred, bigotry, islamophobia because that's who they are.

White women voted nearly 2:1 for someone who thinks it was OK when "we had slavery"(1) and women couldn't vote. You people voted for someone because you think possible unborn children are more important than actual living 14-year-old girls. The twisted level of self-justification here is literally nauseating.

Story 2: black people will save us. Well, they sure did last night. Black women, black men, and young voters (those Millenials that it's fashionable to blame for things) carried the day for Jones. I'm not even going to talk about the white men, except in disgust. The picture is not entirely terrible - Moore lost handily in a number of affluent white suburbs. These people have been voting with Trump (or Trump-alikes) in the past. But I'll talk more about this in the next story.

This current story has a number of great elements and a number of problematic ones. To begin with, the problems. They start with the DNC, which has just sort of offhand expected black folk to show up. When I called Jones a Republicrat I wasn't particularly kidding. He's pro-choice and made a name for himself prosecuting Klansmen who killed black children, but he hasn't done a lot lately. And he did play to the conservative white voter more than to liberal black voters. And he left black folk out of his calculation until it became clear in the last few weeks that they might actually put him in office.

There was some great effort led by organizations like the NAACP to do neighborhood-level organizing, door-knocking, phone banking, and engaging with traditional black religious figures to counterweight Moore's overt religious appeals. There was more great effort done by other grass-roots organization to document and counter the extremely racist voter suppression that went on. Black people and black polling places were singled out in frighteningly overt ways.

Where is the goddamn national Democratic leadership on this? Why the hell aren't they flying in any (or all!) of the 46 faces I count on this picture: https://cbc.house.gov/ Why is the DNC so goddamn afraid to speak with a black voice, to black communities? Partly it's because they'd have to address the neglect that the national (and many state) parties have inflicted on communities of color. Yes, the Jones campaign brought in Deval Patrick and Cory Booker, but only at the last moment.

We have a Voting Rights Act because of places like Selma, Alabama. Why aren't national Democratic figures recognizing the decades-long debt we owe and putting resources into repaying it?

Story 3: the black belt. The core of this story is the idea that no matter what else happens, the Republicans are now going to have to play defense everywhere. People emboldened by Alabama are going out to take on Paul Ryan. A year ago, he seemed unassailable. Now, it may well be the case that there are no safe seats. Trump lost this race, twice. Chief Strategist Bannon lost. Moore lost while tying himself hard to the Trump wagon.

There is blood in the water, my friends, and if the Democrats can get out of their own way, stop having stupid circular firing squads, and really seriously NEVER EVER AGAIN UTTER THE WORDS "Bernie" or "Hilary" then we might stand a chance. In particular, that deeply red south elected a Democrat governor of Louisiana. It just elected a Democrat to the Senate in Alabama. Democrats crushed it in Virginia.

The demographics of the rest of the Southeast United States can be modeled as more like Alabama, more like Louisiana, or more like Virginia. But right now we have models for how to win. Those models all start with the reality that there are significant, if not dominant, communities of color in those states.

We cannot count on the Republicans consistently to nominate and back monsters of Moore's caliber. "At least we're not Trump" is not a winning strategy. If we want to win those states it's going to involve going to those communities of color, listening to their needs, understanding and starting to reverse the decades of neglect, and picking/training/funding new candidates who come from those communities. This means using resources, and time. White voters who are uneasy with hard, angry, divisive politics can be peeled away from the core Trumpists but only if they see a better vision on offer.

It is, however, a winning plan - as last night demonstrated. We have benefited much more than I think anyone anticipated from the open civil war inside the Republican party but that's not going to last forever.

(1) I hate that phrase so much. It's like "we had bunions" - a thing we "had" rather than a horrific system of torture and murder we built, funded, and perpetuated.
drwex: (Default)
Tuesday was very good in a whole lot of places. It was not so great in some others. I understand the "yay, everything is better now" and the "Democrats are back" sentiment, but I think it's both wrong and potentially dangerously overblown. Nate Silver's take is more measured - he argues that these results mean that control of the House is definitely in play for 2018.

Back in July, when I still had energy to blog politics regularly I noted that one of the biggest impacts Trump was having was to put into play seats that would ordinarily have been considered "safe". Republicans four months ago saw no value in putting daylight between themselves and Trump because the Dear Leader's followers would crucify them if they did. Last night we saw normally safe red districts flip blue and we saw people like the Republican candidate for governor in Virginia go down in flames (underperforming his poll numbers) after moving hard right and making support for Trump a feature of their candidacy.

So far this has only been an issue in blue and purple states but I think Silver is right - that amount of math means the Democrats don't have to flip heavily red states in order to take back the House. The problem is that even once Trump is gone - whether that's one, two, or seven more years (let THAT sink in a minute) - there will still be the loyal Trump voters and the forces that propelled him to the Presidency to deal with.

We saw a number of those forces in play this election, ranging from overt racist attacks against Muslim and Asian candidates before the election, to a series of polls that show quite clearly that white men and white women are still voting for Trumpist candidates. If you didn't know before, you should now realize that the Democrats owe their sweep - especially in Virginia - to women of color (mostly black) who turned out in record numbers, who were integral to the candidates' ground games, who ran for office in unprecedented numbers, and who voted for progressive candidates.

And while almost no one was looking, Wisconsin became the 30th state to vote for holding a (US) Constitutional Convention. 34 are needed to convene such a convention, something that has never been done. Article 5 of the US Constitution provides that a Convention can be called by 2/3 of both houses of Congress or by 2/3 of the state legislatures. Since Congress can't get a 2/3 majority to agree on what day of the week it is, very conservative and what we'd now call "alt right" forces have been quietly working on the state level for many years to force this.

Their nominal cover is a national "balanced budget" amendment - itself a terrible and stupid idea (*) - but the real risk is that once you open the process up there are very few limits on what the Convention could do. A few clauses, such as equal representation of the States in Congress, can't be changed this way. But everything else is. Want to see a national Freedom To Impose My Region On You clause? Got you covered. Want to see corporate secrecy and privilege enshrined as the highest law of the land? On it.

Basically every regressive, racist, sexist, you-name-it position that the Alt Right holds dear could be made the unbreakable law of the land. You probably couldn't get slavery reestablished, but going back to a past where queer folk were denied rights is completely believable if this thing happens because it's being driven and funded by people like the John Birch society. If you think they're not capable of packing the Constitutional Convention with their people you are foolishly naive, imo.

In theory, anything this Convention proposed would still need to be ratified by 3/4 of the states (in their legislatures) but Congress can get around that by authorizing state-level conventions. In either case, all the states get to do is vote yes or no - the text issued by the Constitutional Convention is immutable.

There are also some whacky corner cases that nobody knows how to deal with, such as what happens if the Convention issues incompatible or contradictory amendments. In the past this has been dealt with by having new Amendments explicitly address the conflicts, as when the 21st Amendment explicitly reversed the 18th Amendment, ending the US Prohibition era. In a world where multiple amendments are circulating there may be an incentive to delay ratification of an Amendment, in order to ensure that it supersedes the contradictory rival.

(*) If people want to know why I think this is so I'll expound in a separate entry but this wall of text is already long enough.
drwex: (Default)
Instead, I've just gotten used to the daily ravings of the dumpster fire in Washington, by which I include the entirely awful Republicans in Congress(*) as well as in the White House and installed at the tops of various Federal agencies.

Also, people who are smarter and more knowledgeable than I am keep writing things better than I would write. Here, for example, are two very concise lawsplainers from Ken White on Popehat about the first real legal moves in the ongoing Mueller investigation.

https://www.popehat.com/2017/10/30/lawsplainer-the-george-papadopoulos-guilty-plea/
https://www.popehat.com/2017/10/30/lawsplainer-the-manafortgates-indictment/

Treason's Greetings, folks, and may we all have a Merry Indictmas this year.

(*) Interesting thing - Trump and the Senate have sucked nearly all the air out of the room. When was the last time you read a story on something in the House that had substance other than "House rubber-stamps the latest horror show"? I can't recall and it's a delicious irony that people who've worked so hard to puff themselves up in importance have now faded to a sideshow. That's what you get for hitching your wagon to a cult of personality - there's no room in the spotlight for anyone other than the Dear Leader.
drwex: (VNV)
http://www.npr.org/event/music/560785111/amanda-palmers-powerful-new-song-and-video-on-the-global-refugee-crisis

Go here, watch this. But you might want tissues within reach.

This is Amanda Palmer's song and video in memory of Aylan (whose name might actually have been Alan) Kurdi, the refugee child whose drowned body washed up on a beach and was photographed there in 2015. Briefly that photo became the face of the ongoing refugee crisis that, as we close out 2017, has not diminished. Indeed, it has become worse both because of worsening conflicts in Syria, Sudan, Yemen, Libya, etc. and because our government has joined ranks with other nationalists and isolationists who shut out these refugees, turn their backs on the needs of our brothers and sisters, and worsen the suffering of people who need to escape.

Palmer's style remains what it is - I'm still not a huge fan of that style - but it's head-on addressing both the crisis and the appalling responses to it.
drwex: (Default)
https://www.nytimes.com/2017/10/22/us/cub-scout-colorado.html

The video is worth watching, at least through the question. The response from the politician is awful, teeth-grindingly bad. But really it's the Scouts who ought to be ashamed, here.

Add it to their list, and pass the URL on.
drwex: (Default)
For only the second time since its start I find myself agreeing with the Trump Administration in something it has done. Specifically the decision to expel Cuban diplomats.

If you've missed the story (and I wouldn't blame you) there have been a series of strange and harmful attacks on US personnel in Cuba. This has resulted in hospitalizations, hearing loss (maybe permanent), and other injuries to embassy staff. As a result, the US has evacuated about half the staff and all families and non-essential personnel. The Cuban government's response has been to throw up its hands and say "not us, we know nothing."

Fine. Maybe that's true; maybe it's the Russians f'ing with us and trying to cause a row. But lost in the war of words is a fundamental principle of diplomacy, called a "duty to protect". Embassies have their own security, and embassy grounds are considered the territory of the occupying nation. But outside those grounds, the host country has a duty to protect the people in the embassy. When that duty is not upheld, things can go disastrously wrong (e.g. Libya, Iran).

Most of the embassy staff are career diplomats. They are the ones who will have to pick up the pieces and try to rebuild once this "moron" (to quote Secretary of State Rex Tillerson, who apparently did call Trump that) is gone. If the US does not pressure Cuba to live up to its duty to protect then we put all our diplomatic personnel worldwide at higher risk, make their jobs harder, and endanger the longterm future of US foreign relations.

So, yeah, count me for a second time as supporting a Trump administration action.
drwex: (Default)
Start here: https://whatever.scalzi.com/2017/10/02/2017-word-counts-and-writing-process/

John Scalzi talks about how living in 2017 America has affected his writing process. The way in which the ongoing horror show affects his ability to focus, to create, to detach from the clamoring needs of a house on fire. He talks about how he's political by nature (yep) and despite being privileged (yep) there's no easy way to build a Faraday cage against this stuff. More to the point, if you're a caring human being you don't want to. More below.

Next here: https://www.kameronhurley.com/ongoing-national-horrors-cant-unplugged-go/
A woman, with a disability that could kill her if she loses health insurance, holding onto the idea that the only way out is through.

So, Yom Kippur. On one side, it's a religious observance. The holiest of days in the Jewish holiday cycle. The day on which the Book of Life is closed, and the fates of every person are sealed. Philosophically, it's also the day on which some Jews fast and pray and not only do we ask G-d for forgiveness for our own transgressions, we take responsibility for those committed by others. We safeguard our fellow humans as best we can from G-d's displeasure. Jews who follow the behaviors and patterns of this holiday will often wish each other a "meaningful" fast. That is, observe the strictures of the holiday not because they're strictures but because they help bring meaning to your life.

Y.K. is also supposed to be a day of introspection and reflection. Can I tell you just how hard it is to do that kind of internal work when you are worried that millions of your countrymen are without power, or water, or medicine and your government is ignoring them because they're "uppity" brown people?

And in case there was any doubt, I'm also not OK with pleading for G-d to preserve a pile of shitbag Nazis who would like nothing more than to exterminate me and all my kind. I'm not a big fan of punching them and I'll clench my jaw and extend rights of decent treatment and free public speech to them. But that's my limit. I am not going to lie to myself by saying I want anything more.

So, what to do? I don't go to synagogue anyway. But I fasted - partly to see what would happen and partly because I could. I know there are lots of people who would like to be able to do that, but whose bodies, medical situations, or other obligations prevent them. So in part I fast to stand in for those who cannot. Partly it's that I recognize I do very few things that are hard for me and I was hoping that having the experience would help me move toward some level of meaning.

Instead I got a lot of headache and not much else. But I did realize that this is not a one-off. As Ms Hurley says, anyone who thinks that the 2018 elections are going to bring any relief is fooling themselves. I think I have the majority of the self-care routine down. What I lack is some way to survive four years of constant shock treatment.

Lots of good stuff written these days about the way this Administration is deliberately keeping the population in a state of shock and keeping us terrorized in order to stifle effective resistance. I'm reading and thinking, but don't have anything to say, yet.

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