Jan. 12th, 2017

drwex: (Default)
Three things are true:

1. Prior to the most recent election season, Ted Cruz was willing to run the American economy off a fiscal cliff by political maneuverings around paying national debt.

2. During the recent campaign, Cruz was repeatedly humiliated by Trump, both politically and personally.

3. The debt ceiling will need to be raised again this year, possibly as early as March, though I'm seeing some pundits saying that could be stretched until June. A lot depends on the economy performance and taxes. All of this is independent of changes Congress will make in the next six months. It's possible they could pass some of Trump's more expensive ideas and the reckoning will come sooner. Regardless, it's single-digit months away.

If Cruz remains angry at Trump this would be a perfect opportunity to put the new President into a very uncomfortable position. I think Cruz and Congress would lose this again - just as they lost it the last few times around - but if Cruz is personally mad enough he just might not give a sh*t.

Players in this fight will (assuming Trump gets his nominees railroaded... err, approved into office) include a budget director who is on record (as a Congressman) as opposing raising the debt ceiling, and a bevy of Wall Street insiders who will utterly freak their faces off if it looks like US debt reliability is going to be called into question.

Things to look forward to...

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