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The Warren politics thing
Oct. 16th, 2018 10:24 amFor those who haven't been following politics lately, Senator Warren has published a DNA test that purports to show she has Native American ancestry. She's responding to DJT's taunts the last time this topic came up. Specifically, he stated that he'd donate a million to a charity of her choice if she took a DNA test that showed Native ancestry.
Fundamentally, the question is "why" (related, "why now") and here's my theory about what's going on...
On the one hand, no Native person I know thinks DNA matters or shows anything relevant. I sympathize with this a lot because Jews have a similar stance. You don't have Jewish "blood" or anything like that. You have parents, a heritage, an identity, and a set of beliefs and practices. If Native Americans accept you as a member of one of their nations (tribes) then you are. Periodfullstop. Trying to make this be about DNA is deeply uncomfortable, as are the discussions of "well, we didn't consider her ancestry or Native status in this hiring decision" and similar. So why take on all these negatives? (*)
I think what's happening is that this is a trial balloon for 2020. It's not a coincidence that this is happening after she has set up field offices in all 50 states - I bet all of them are testing how this message is playing in their states. Warren is putting DJT on the spot. He can say "no I didn't say that" and she can say "here's the footage of you saying that." He can say, "Well, I meant this other thing" and she can say "You said do X; I did X, now pay up."
Her message is simple, direct, and combative. Responses to it end up sounding evasive and weak. Sound familiar? Warren is taking a page from the playbook DJT used to control the narrative and steamroll his primary opponents. He made himself look like a fighter and those other guys look mealy-mouthed; he got the equivalent of billions of free publicity by making his issues the ones that topped the news tickers more or less constantly.
If this works, expect to see more like this. Every candidate who thinks they're going to go up against Trump is going to need a strategy and they're going to have to trial that strategy, tweak it and refine it. Warren is smart; she's a planner and a forward-thinker. If this doesn't work expect her to come back with something new in a few weeks.
If I was an advisor, I'd urge her to head to North Dakota and other states where ID laws are being used to suppress Native voting. She'd use this issue to jump into a topic that is very 2018 relevant - who gets to vote and who decides that. If that works, she'll keep her name and her chosen issue in the public eye, while building good will with both marginalized voters and the Democratic base in general.
I'm also impressed that she's leaning in on the "women can't show anger/be combative" issue. I think she has calculated that the support she'll pick up from women outweighs the support she'd lose from (older) men who get uncomfortable when women show anger. Most of those guys wouldn't have voted for her anyway. She's flying directly into the "be civil" headwinds and I think it's going to help her. I doubt anyone who isn't combative is going to make any inroads with DJT dominating the media.
(*) I hope she's got Native advisers on her staff who can help her navigate these waters.
Fundamentally, the question is "why" (related, "why now") and here's my theory about what's going on...
On the one hand, no Native person I know thinks DNA matters or shows anything relevant. I sympathize with this a lot because Jews have a similar stance. You don't have Jewish "blood" or anything like that. You have parents, a heritage, an identity, and a set of beliefs and practices. If Native Americans accept you as a member of one of their nations (tribes) then you are. Periodfullstop. Trying to make this be about DNA is deeply uncomfortable, as are the discussions of "well, we didn't consider her ancestry or Native status in this hiring decision" and similar. So why take on all these negatives? (*)
I think what's happening is that this is a trial balloon for 2020. It's not a coincidence that this is happening after she has set up field offices in all 50 states - I bet all of them are testing how this message is playing in their states. Warren is putting DJT on the spot. He can say "no I didn't say that" and she can say "here's the footage of you saying that." He can say, "Well, I meant this other thing" and she can say "You said do X; I did X, now pay up."
Her message is simple, direct, and combative. Responses to it end up sounding evasive and weak. Sound familiar? Warren is taking a page from the playbook DJT used to control the narrative and steamroll his primary opponents. He made himself look like a fighter and those other guys look mealy-mouthed; he got the equivalent of billions of free publicity by making his issues the ones that topped the news tickers more or less constantly.
If this works, expect to see more like this. Every candidate who thinks they're going to go up against Trump is going to need a strategy and they're going to have to trial that strategy, tweak it and refine it. Warren is smart; she's a planner and a forward-thinker. If this doesn't work expect her to come back with something new in a few weeks.
If I was an advisor, I'd urge her to head to North Dakota and other states where ID laws are being used to suppress Native voting. She'd use this issue to jump into a topic that is very 2018 relevant - who gets to vote and who decides that. If that works, she'll keep her name and her chosen issue in the public eye, while building good will with both marginalized voters and the Democratic base in general.
I'm also impressed that she's leaning in on the "women can't show anger/be combative" issue. I think she has calculated that the support she'll pick up from women outweighs the support she'd lose from (older) men who get uncomfortable when women show anger. Most of those guys wouldn't have voted for her anyway. She's flying directly into the "be civil" headwinds and I think it's going to help her. I doubt anyone who isn't combative is going to make any inroads with DJT dominating the media.
(*) I hope she's got Native advisers on her staff who can help her navigate these waters.
