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drwexI've been doing most of my politicking over on G+ in part because it started with me self-congratulation on predictions. This is a bit longer so it goes here. Everyone is treating Mitt as if he had it all locked up, which I think is premature. He's certainly odds-on favorite but I don't see any of his opponents folding their hands just yet, though most will, sooner rather than later. Here's how I see the Repub primary next-stage and maybe end-game:
South Carolina is Santorum's best chance. He's more or less breathing down Romney's neck at this point and S.C. is as close to his natural consistency as we'll see for a while. If he manages to beat Mitt he's in it for the long haul, but I don't think he will. The problem is that the Grinch is playing in the same space and the two of them are splitting what could be a more unified voting bloc. I think Santorum will demolish Grinch in S.C. but Grinch will pull away enough support to deny Santorum a victory over Mitt.
Santorum has managed to unify the born-again and religious types in a way that surprised me. Remember when Kennedy had problems because he was Catholic? Man those days are gone. Santorum may not be a Baptist but at least he's not Mormon.
The funniest thing since Herman Caine folded up his tent and went away has to be Rush Limbaugh upbraiding Santorum and Gingrich for making what I would call 99% arguments. The problem for Gingrich is that his own background is going to undercut his anti-Bain Capital stance and he won't win any favors with anyone that isn't already supporting Santorum. If he thinks the Tea Party is suddenly going to come to his banner he is on even worse drugs than usual. Santorum will appear on Limbaugh's show and probably a couple of other talk radio shows in the next couple of weeks and do his mea culpas and explanations, and come out looking good to that audience.
Neither Huntsman nor Paul are going to be able to keep any of their traction in S.C. Their constituency is a tiny part of the state mostly along the coast which Mitt is heavily invested in and they don't have the money or machinery to run counter to that. It's possible that the wave of attack ads that Grinch has funded will shake loose a few points of support but both men are likely to finish in low single digits. Both have to be looking on to Florida.
Florida is a real wildcard. Gingrich, Paul, and Huntsman all could potentially do well here but the odds are against all of them. I believe that a bad showing in S.C. will hurt Gingrich most. Paul's best hope is some kind of hung or near-hung convention that lets him play at kingmaker so he's probably going to be in it to the end no matter what. If Gingrich does as badly as I expect in S.C. and/or blows his own foot off - always a possibility when the Newtron bomb gets angry - then he'll plummet in FL and Paul will pick up points, maybe into the 12-15% range.
Santorum will have to play defense in FL. His constituency is up in the panhandle, which is largely conservative and much more rural but has highly unpredictable voter turn-out. Romney's going to be focusing on the big cities and may just bet that he can leave the rural areas to Santorum and still roll up another win. The only way this fails is if Santorum scores an upset in S.C. and/or Gingrich does something spectacularly self-destructive. I believe that Romney's negatives are baked in already for FL voters but if I'm wrong about that Huntsman stands to benefit the most. I don't think Huntsman can really beat Mitt in FL but if Gingrich and Santorum keep hair-pulling each other then it's conceivable Huntsman could come a reasonable second.
Normally NV wouldn't be interesting but I expect it to be Huntsman's swan song. NV has a very large Mormon constituency and even though the LDS Church is officially and strictly neutral it's going to come down to most people voting for one of the two Mormons. I would love to see Huntsman upset Romney here and continue, but one of the places I agree with the pundits is that Romney is the most seasoned campaigner. He'll be able to out-spend and out-organize Huntsman in NV, probably by two orders of magnitude, particularly since Huntsman has said he's not going to violate his self-imposed limits on how much of his personal and family fortune he puts into the campaign. Nevada is a caucus, not a formal primary, and Huntsman skipped Iowa's caucuses while Romney's team is experienced and ready to rock.
Of the rest of the pack I would expect Ron Paul to put in a strong 3rd place show here as he usually does in places where individualist voices sing loud, unless Santorum has pulled major upsets or great showings in SC and FL, in which case the Anyone But Romney vote is going to swing to him and drop Paul into 4th.
I also believe that one of Santorum or Gingrich will be out after Nevada. My money is on Gingrich being out because if he bombs in these three he's got nowhere to go. Santorum can look forward to Missouri as a possible place to revive a flagging campaign before Super Tuesday. After Super Tuesday it's going to be down to Mitt and... or just Mitt depending on how the others play their cards.
Y'all can feel free to tell me I'm wrong now or come back here and say "tolja so" in the next couple weeks. This is fun sport.
South Carolina is Santorum's best chance. He's more or less breathing down Romney's neck at this point and S.C. is as close to his natural consistency as we'll see for a while. If he manages to beat Mitt he's in it for the long haul, but I don't think he will. The problem is that the Grinch is playing in the same space and the two of them are splitting what could be a more unified voting bloc. I think Santorum will demolish Grinch in S.C. but Grinch will pull away enough support to deny Santorum a victory over Mitt.
Santorum has managed to unify the born-again and religious types in a way that surprised me. Remember when Kennedy had problems because he was Catholic? Man those days are gone. Santorum may not be a Baptist but at least he's not Mormon.
The funniest thing since Herman Caine folded up his tent and went away has to be Rush Limbaugh upbraiding Santorum and Gingrich for making what I would call 99% arguments. The problem for Gingrich is that his own background is going to undercut his anti-Bain Capital stance and he won't win any favors with anyone that isn't already supporting Santorum. If he thinks the Tea Party is suddenly going to come to his banner he is on even worse drugs than usual. Santorum will appear on Limbaugh's show and probably a couple of other talk radio shows in the next couple of weeks and do his mea culpas and explanations, and come out looking good to that audience.
Neither Huntsman nor Paul are going to be able to keep any of their traction in S.C. Their constituency is a tiny part of the state mostly along the coast which Mitt is heavily invested in and they don't have the money or machinery to run counter to that. It's possible that the wave of attack ads that Grinch has funded will shake loose a few points of support but both men are likely to finish in low single digits. Both have to be looking on to Florida.
Florida is a real wildcard. Gingrich, Paul, and Huntsman all could potentially do well here but the odds are against all of them. I believe that a bad showing in S.C. will hurt Gingrich most. Paul's best hope is some kind of hung or near-hung convention that lets him play at kingmaker so he's probably going to be in it to the end no matter what. If Gingrich does as badly as I expect in S.C. and/or blows his own foot off - always a possibility when the Newtron bomb gets angry - then he'll plummet in FL and Paul will pick up points, maybe into the 12-15% range.
Santorum will have to play defense in FL. His constituency is up in the panhandle, which is largely conservative and much more rural but has highly unpredictable voter turn-out. Romney's going to be focusing on the big cities and may just bet that he can leave the rural areas to Santorum and still roll up another win. The only way this fails is if Santorum scores an upset in S.C. and/or Gingrich does something spectacularly self-destructive. I believe that Romney's negatives are baked in already for FL voters but if I'm wrong about that Huntsman stands to benefit the most. I don't think Huntsman can really beat Mitt in FL but if Gingrich and Santorum keep hair-pulling each other then it's conceivable Huntsman could come a reasonable second.
Normally NV wouldn't be interesting but I expect it to be Huntsman's swan song. NV has a very large Mormon constituency and even though the LDS Church is officially and strictly neutral it's going to come down to most people voting for one of the two Mormons. I would love to see Huntsman upset Romney here and continue, but one of the places I agree with the pundits is that Romney is the most seasoned campaigner. He'll be able to out-spend and out-organize Huntsman in NV, probably by two orders of magnitude, particularly since Huntsman has said he's not going to violate his self-imposed limits on how much of his personal and family fortune he puts into the campaign. Nevada is a caucus, not a formal primary, and Huntsman skipped Iowa's caucuses while Romney's team is experienced and ready to rock.
Of the rest of the pack I would expect Ron Paul to put in a strong 3rd place show here as he usually does in places where individualist voices sing loud, unless Santorum has pulled major upsets or great showings in SC and FL, in which case the Anyone But Romney vote is going to swing to him and drop Paul into 4th.
I also believe that one of Santorum or Gingrich will be out after Nevada. My money is on Gingrich being out because if he bombs in these three he's got nowhere to go. Santorum can look forward to Missouri as a possible place to revive a flagging campaign before Super Tuesday. After Super Tuesday it's going to be down to Mitt and... or just Mitt depending on how the others play their cards.
Y'all can feel free to tell me I'm wrong now or come back here and say "tolja so" in the next couple weeks. This is fun sport.
no subject
Date: 2012-01-12 10:01 pm (UTC)I think that the Republicans believe that having a woman in the #2 spot on the ticket gives them some leverage. Polling for Palin showed a swing purely based on her sex especially when she was largely unknown nationally. Picking a woman who is (a) smarter, (b) more able to keep her mouth shut when necessary and (c) not so ladled with family baggage is probably high on the strategic agenda.