A political update

[drwex]

Huntsman is out. I agree with Scalzi that he decided to cut his losses early and is probably angling for a Secretary of State position in a Romney administration. IMO he has the experience, the balls, and the brains to be a good one.

Romney took several solid hits in the debate but sadly they were delivered by Gingrich. The evangelicals decided they were backing Santorum, which means the votes of the not-Romney bloc are going to remain divided. Gingrich's good showing in the debate comes at Santorum's expense and is a gift to the Republican power-brokers who can (and should) see a Romney->Gingrich->Santorum finish order as a clear sign of the weakness of the evangelical contingent in the party. Unless Romney continues sleepwalking (and maybe even if he does) I don't see Gingrich beating him in SC. A G-R-S finish is just barely possible if the debate goes very badly for Romney, very well for Gingrich, and the Tea Party throws its weight behind Gingrich. Much more likely is R-G-S in which case the question remains how much above 25% can Romney get.

On the longer view, Gingrich's biggest haymaker against Romney is still the financial/tax returns issue, which is a very poor strategic bet for him to make. He can't beat Romney this way.

Comments

[c1.livejournal.com]

He's worth a vote in the primary, if for nothing else than he's the only GOP-er who wants to draw down the military, and that message needs to be broadcast a bit more -- America is relying too much on the military to be its main instrument of foreign policy, and I think the world is pretty sick of it now.
And really, he's too batshit insane to be actually electable, so it's a pretty safe ballot.
Romney, on the other hand, looks and sounds pretty presidential right now, and that's what scares me. If Romney wins the primaries, Obama's a four and out president. Paul is batshit insane, but he isn't dangerous, because everyone can see that he's batshit insane, plain as day. Romney is dangerous, because he's just as batshit insane, but he does an exemplary job of hiding it.

[drwex]

I don't count Obama out yet. Way too early. I also think that Obama's electoral fortunes depend much more on what the economy does in 2012 than anything else.

[c1.livejournal.com]

You heard it here first: The economy will be down for the count, barring any major miracles. Unemployment is still uncomfortably close to 10%, and to think that will be halved by November requires powerful hallucinogens. They're talking in louder tones about impending recession in Europe, which won't do the US economy any favours. Unless things remain substantially the same as they are now (I'm not going to be so naive as to think things will meaningfully improve; they'll get worse if anything at all) then Obama is a sitting duck come autumn.
I still contend that if Romney gets the GOP nomination, Obama gets fast tracked to the lecture circuit.