A political update

[drwex]

Huntsman is out. I agree with Scalzi that he decided to cut his losses early and is probably angling for a Secretary of State position in a Romney administration. IMO he has the experience, the balls, and the brains to be a good one.

Romney took several solid hits in the debate but sadly they were delivered by Gingrich. The evangelicals decided they were backing Santorum, which means the votes of the not-Romney bloc are going to remain divided. Gingrich's good showing in the debate comes at Santorum's expense and is a gift to the Republican power-brokers who can (and should) see a Romney->Gingrich->Santorum finish order as a clear sign of the weakness of the evangelical contingent in the party. Unless Romney continues sleepwalking (and maybe even if he does) I don't see Gingrich beating him in SC. A G-R-S finish is just barely possible if the debate goes very badly for Romney, very well for Gingrich, and the Tea Party throws its weight behind Gingrich. Much more likely is R-G-S in which case the question remains how much above 25% can Romney get.

On the longer view, Gingrich's biggest haymaker against Romney is still the financial/tax returns issue, which is a very poor strategic bet for him to make. He can't beat Romney this way.

Comments

[feste-sylvain.livejournal.com]

Well, he will most likely not be the candidate. It would take a major scandal on Romney's part to allow Paul to pull ahead.

I still believe that he will show, that is, come in third behind Romney and Gingrich in South Carolina. Given Gingrich's ridiculous response to Romney admitting that he pays a lower tax percentage than middle-class Americans, I predict a Romney victory, but there's still time for Gingrich to convince South Carolina Republicans that he's closer to their views than Milquetoast Romney.

Santorum is finally being recognized as a joke, just as Bachmann was. He will not beat Paul, even in South Carolina.

[drwex]

Hurm. Maybe. I'm less certain than I was 48 hours ago. Both Paul and Romney are going light on events in S.C. but on the other hand Santorum appears to be fading fast. Gingrich is picking up conservative voters that I thought would have swung to Santorum and even Perry is showing gains. In the end that's better for Romney as the anyone-but vote is now splitting three ways. Romney is now taking heat even from people who nominally support him such as Christie. If he is at all smart he'll make hay in the next debate by pointing out that his rivals' tax plans would drop the Romney rate to 0 so why do they care so much about his tax returns. He has to stop pretending he's running against Obama and start hitting back at the gang of four.

If the GoF have any brains at all they'll combine forces after S.C. behind whoever comes second and hope that person can beat Mitt in Florida. I still think Romney's going to take both SC and FL and have it sewn up at that point.