A political update

[drwex]

Huntsman is out. I agree with Scalzi that he decided to cut his losses early and is probably angling for a Secretary of State position in a Romney administration. IMO he has the experience, the balls, and the brains to be a good one.

Romney took several solid hits in the debate but sadly they were delivered by Gingrich. The evangelicals decided they were backing Santorum, which means the votes of the not-Romney bloc are going to remain divided. Gingrich's good showing in the debate comes at Santorum's expense and is a gift to the Republican power-brokers who can (and should) see a Romney->Gingrich->Santorum finish order as a clear sign of the weakness of the evangelical contingent in the party. Unless Romney continues sleepwalking (and maybe even if he does) I don't see Gingrich beating him in SC. A G-R-S finish is just barely possible if the debate goes very badly for Romney, very well for Gingrich, and the Tea Party throws its weight behind Gingrich. Much more likely is R-G-S in which case the question remains how much above 25% can Romney get.

On the longer view, Gingrich's biggest haymaker against Romney is still the financial/tax returns issue, which is a very poor strategic bet for him to make. He can't beat Romney this way.

Comments

[pryder]

I think Paul could conceivably place second. It's mostly because Gingrich and Santorum are trying to appeal to the same voters and might split them evenly as they did in New Hampshire, allowing Paul to sneak past both of them.

Right now it's looking more likely that Santorum's day as the non-RomneyPaul candidate of the week is over and the religious right portion of the Republican party will move back to Gingrich. That would lead to a strong second by Gingrich or even an outside shot at a win.

I also personally think that Romney is the only person in the Republican field who would have a prayer against Obama, though he would probably lose. Any of the others would lead to a defeat of historic proportions, comparable to Goldwater's loss in 1964.

As for Paul's position on abortion, at least it's consistent and well thought out. If you really do believe that life begins at conception then you MUST believe that abortion is wrong because it's murder, and because the right of an individual to continued life trumps all other rights. (I oppose the death penalty for that reason; I don't believe that the state has the right to murder.) I just think it's wrong. My own belief is that life begins at birth -- therefore abortion should always be legal, because the most important right in play is self-determination of the mother.

[drwex]

Paul has no constituency in S.C. There's the Romney/establishment vote which is pretty solid now that Huntsman is out, and there's the anti-Romney vote. If Paul draws any support it's from that latter group. People who are for Paul aren't going to vote for Romney in the primaries, though they'll line up behind him in the general election.

[pryder]

At least it looks like I was right about the Santorum fade, though the way things have changed so quickly this election season it's hard to be certain! If the current poll results hold up, Santorum will be out of the picture soon. Paul will soldier on at least until the winner-take-all primaries start to happen, but it will probably be a two-horse race with Paul as a sideshow.