Distracting myself with more politics
Jan. 25th, 2012 09:23 am![[personal profile]](https://www.dreamwidth.org/img/silk/identity/user.png){kind=small}
drwexCouple of things still upsetting me so let's talk about the Republican Circus... err, primaries.
Florida is now too close to call, though I'm still leaning slightly toward Romney winning it. Mitt has finally realized he's not running against Obama (yet) and has found a big new stick to hit Gingrich with - the Fannie Mae connection. Florida's housing bust is huge and ongoing and tying Gingrich to that is going to play well. Mitt is also playing to the anyone-but-Obama crowd by pointing out that Grinch had his chance to lead when he was in Congress and he ended up having to resign in disgrace.
Except Gingrich has been teflon-coated so far and he's still out-debating Romney by a mile. Plus he just got a huge infusion of ad-buy cash... excuse me, his non-affiliated SuperPAC just got a huge infusion of ad-buy cash that will not at all be coordinated with the candidate's need not to get his ass handed to him in Florida's major media markets, nope, nossir.
There's a lot to be said about how much Citizens United has upset the party establishments. By controlling purse strings the establishment always had a lot of control over candidates. If Grinch pulls the rug out from under them this way it could seriously shake up the old order. No matter what happens in 2012 the Dems are going to have to run a primary in 2016 and their big fat-cat party boss-types have to be shaking in their boots watching this spectacle. Meanwhile the Republican establishment has not yet come out strongly for anyone (Nate Silver elaborates on this a lot). My guess is that after Florida they'll line up behind the winner either because Mitt will hang on for a win and they'll want to solidify their boy or because Gingrich will pull off an upset and they'll want to get with the candidate they see as having momentum. There's a very slim chance we'll see a major endorsement come down before the Florida primary but I'd bet against that.
Look for Santorum to pull a Perry any day now.
Florida is now too close to call, though I'm still leaning slightly toward Romney winning it. Mitt has finally realized he's not running against Obama (yet) and has found a big new stick to hit Gingrich with - the Fannie Mae connection. Florida's housing bust is huge and ongoing and tying Gingrich to that is going to play well. Mitt is also playing to the anyone-but-Obama crowd by pointing out that Grinch had his chance to lead when he was in Congress and he ended up having to resign in disgrace.
Except Gingrich has been teflon-coated so far and he's still out-debating Romney by a mile. Plus he just got a huge infusion of ad-buy cash... excuse me, his non-affiliated SuperPAC just got a huge infusion of ad-buy cash that will not at all be coordinated with the candidate's need not to get his ass handed to him in Florida's major media markets, nope, nossir.
There's a lot to be said about how much Citizens United has upset the party establishments. By controlling purse strings the establishment always had a lot of control over candidates. If Grinch pulls the rug out from under them this way it could seriously shake up the old order. No matter what happens in 2012 the Dems are going to have to run a primary in 2016 and their big fat-cat party boss-types have to be shaking in their boots watching this spectacle. Meanwhile the Republican establishment has not yet come out strongly for anyone (Nate Silver elaborates on this a lot). My guess is that after Florida they'll line up behind the winner either because Mitt will hang on for a win and they'll want to solidify their boy or because Gingrich will pull off an upset and they'll want to get with the candidate they see as having momentum. There's a very slim chance we'll see a major endorsement come down before the Florida primary but I'd bet against that.
Look for Santorum to pull a Perry any day now.
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no subject
Date: 2012-01-25 06:04 pm (UTC)But if we lose the Frothy One, the primaries will go from "funny at times" to "Perpetually depressing"!
no subject
Date: 2012-01-26 01:25 am (UTC)Yeah, I have to wonder how the Republican establishment is feeling about Sheldon Adelson these days.