It's all over, bar the shouting (politics)
Feb. 1st, 2012 11:56 am![[personal profile]](https://www.dreamwidth.org/img/silk/identity/user.png){kind=small}
drwexAbsent some kind of miracle or Mitt being caught in flagrante with a four-legged critter this contest is over.
The next venues are Nevada and Maine, both caucuses. Both have special circumstances that favor Romney, though I still expect Ron Paul to do well in caucus-type contests. Gingrich will do less well because Romney continues to out-organize him. After that it's Arizona (heavily Mormon) and Michigan (Romney's 'home state') - both should be wins for Romney. After that it's Super Tuesday: eleven states of which Gingrich could win as many as three (Georgia, Tenessee,and Virginia ETA: I'd forgotten the ballot fiasco that has led to Gingrich not even being on the VA slate) especially if Santorum is gone by then. Even if Grinch stays in this long and goes 3-for-11 he'll clearly be falling farther and farther behind.
Romney won Florida on nearly all fronts: he outspent Gingrich by nearly 10:1 and out-advertised him by nearly 20:1. He got a new debate coach and came out swinging in the last Florida debate, managing to parry Gingrich's attacks, jab back, and also keep talking about Obama. He sold himself as the guy with the best chance to beat Obama and Florida Republicans bought it. It's a closed primary so we don't know how effective Romney's message was with independent voters. I don't expect Florida to suddenly go blue in November but as the anyone-but-Romney contingent inside the GOP seems not to want to budge it's an open question where Romney will pull 50+% of popular support from.
Romney showed he knows not just how to raise money but how to spend it. His ground organization was extremely effective when compared to Gingrich who looked to be floundering. Romney trotted out every single Republican Hispanic elected official and every old Congressional colleague of Gingrich's that he could lay hands on to say something bad about Grinch or good about Romney. This is what it looks like when the Republican establishment gives the big ole middle finger to the Tea Party and the religious conservatives that have tried to wrest control in the last couple election cycles. Our boy, our money, our candidate.
Bottom line: Santorum should be gone before Super Tuesday and Gingrich gone afterward. If they hang on past that it'd be purely for show, or spite.
The next venues are Nevada and Maine, both caucuses. Both have special circumstances that favor Romney, though I still expect Ron Paul to do well in caucus-type contests. Gingrich will do less well because Romney continues to out-organize him. After that it's Arizona (heavily Mormon) and Michigan (Romney's 'home state') - both should be wins for Romney. After that it's Super Tuesday: eleven states of which Gingrich could win as many as three (Georgia, Tenessee,
Romney won Florida on nearly all fronts: he outspent Gingrich by nearly 10:1 and out-advertised him by nearly 20:1. He got a new debate coach and came out swinging in the last Florida debate, managing to parry Gingrich's attacks, jab back, and also keep talking about Obama. He sold himself as the guy with the best chance to beat Obama and Florida Republicans bought it. It's a closed primary so we don't know how effective Romney's message was with independent voters. I don't expect Florida to suddenly go blue in November but as the anyone-but-Romney contingent inside the GOP seems not to want to budge it's an open question where Romney will pull 50+% of popular support from.
Romney showed he knows not just how to raise money but how to spend it. His ground organization was extremely effective when compared to Gingrich who looked to be floundering. Romney trotted out every single Republican Hispanic elected official and every old Congressional colleague of Gingrich's that he could lay hands on to say something bad about Grinch or good about Romney. This is what it looks like when the Republican establishment gives the big ole middle finger to the Tea Party and the religious conservatives that have tried to wrest control in the last couple election cycles. Our boy, our money, our candidate.
Bottom line: Santorum should be gone before Super Tuesday and Gingrich gone afterward. If they hang on past that it'd be purely for show, or spite.
no subject
Date: 2012-02-02 02:42 pm (UTC)That said, if he was the only one who failed this requirement I'd be more likely to blame (only) him. In fact all but two candidates didn't make it, which leads me to think that the requirement is out of line with the way campaigns usually collect signatures.
Second, this is the only state in which leading candidates did not get their names on the ballot. Again, this is prima facie evidence that VA's system is out of line with the way the rest of the country runs things. If there we multiple states in which Gingrich or another candidate had failed, I would look to the candidate and their organization to bear more responsibility. But this is a one-off.
Finally, VA prohibits write-in candidacy of any sort. I believe this is a (potentially unconstitutional) restriction on peoples' freedom to vote for their candidate of choice as well as their freedom of speech to use their vote as a symbolic protest.
Given all three of the above I call shenanigans.
no subject
Date: 2012-02-02 03:01 pm (UTC)Given the standard concept of laches in legal issues, I call shenanigans on the candidates.
As for the blamelessness of Gingrich, I didn't say you implied that.
I will point out Gingrich's hypocrisy, given his castigation of ACORN voter registration issues in 2009 ... issues in which ACORN themselves flagged some registration as being suspicious, though they were required by law to turn them in anyway.
I find it suspicious that the GOP candidates who complain about the usurpation of state's rights, now want to fight when state's laws hurt them.
Gingrich is a VA citizen - if he could not collect 10,000 valid signatures, he has shown that his campaign didn't care enough about the state to properly invest in the battle there.
I disagree that it is prima facie evidence that VA's system is out of line with the way the rest of the country runs things - it's prima facie evidence that the candidates failed to conform to the rules they knew about at the beginning of the race.