Yeah, I got nothin' (politics)
Feb. 8th, 2012 02:51 pm![[personal profile]](https://www.dreamwidth.org/img/silk/identity/user.png){kind=small}
drwexSantorum went 3-for-3.
I confess I'd stopped commenting because I thought it was effectively a done deal. Santorum has (what amounts to) no money and little organization. Money doesn't matter so much for caucuses but at the very least I expected Ron Paul to out-organize Santorum. Paul only managed one second-place finish, in MN which is... how do I say this... known for unusual choices in its candidates. Romney won MN handily last time around; how he went from first to fourth is a complete bafflement.
CO I can kind of figure out because the hardcore Republicans who go to caucuses in CO are seriously religious right. What I can't figure out is why they didn't vote for Gingrich - is his teflon wearing off? Did they find him just that much more distasteful? The Grinch wasn't even on the ballot in MO, but I would have expected Santorum to finish a respectable second to Romney, instead of kicking Mitt's ass.
What do we make of this? For one thing, I think it says that "religious conservatives" are not one thing. Both SC and FL have significant populations of religious conservative Republican voters and Santorum couldn't get their attention in these percentages. It's possible that the middle of the country really is feeling differently than the coasts, even among the conservative factions.
Finally, I think it says "don't make too much of this." These results hurt Gingrich more than they hurt Romney as Grinch now has to go on arguing that he (and not Santorum) is the respectable conservative alternative to Romney. He probably figured he had that argument sewn up. Romney's ship is still afloat in part because he got all the delegates from FL (winner-take-all) and because MO didn't actually award any delegates. What Romney got was a(nother) public drubbing but those don't seem to faze him. My money is still on Romney to pick up 7 or 8 states on Super Tuesday.
I confess I'd stopped commenting because I thought it was effectively a done deal. Santorum has (what amounts to) no money and little organization. Money doesn't matter so much for caucuses but at the very least I expected Ron Paul to out-organize Santorum. Paul only managed one second-place finish, in MN which is... how do I say this... known for unusual choices in its candidates. Romney won MN handily last time around; how he went from first to fourth is a complete bafflement.
CO I can kind of figure out because the hardcore Republicans who go to caucuses in CO are seriously religious right. What I can't figure out is why they didn't vote for Gingrich - is his teflon wearing off? Did they find him just that much more distasteful? The Grinch wasn't even on the ballot in MO, but I would have expected Santorum to finish a respectable second to Romney, instead of kicking Mitt's ass.
What do we make of this? For one thing, I think it says that "religious conservatives" are not one thing. Both SC and FL have significant populations of religious conservative Republican voters and Santorum couldn't get their attention in these percentages. It's possible that the middle of the country really is feeling differently than the coasts, even among the conservative factions.
Finally, I think it says "don't make too much of this." These results hurt Gingrich more than they hurt Romney as Grinch now has to go on arguing that he (and not Santorum) is the respectable conservative alternative to Romney. He probably figured he had that argument sewn up. Romney's ship is still afloat in part because he got all the delegates from FL (winner-take-all) and because MO didn't actually award any delegates. What Romney got was a(nother) public drubbing but those don't seem to faze him. My money is still on Romney to pick up 7 or 8 states on Super Tuesday.
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no subject
Date: 2012-02-08 07:59 pm (UTC)I read somewhere that there is a disconnect between Americans with salt water costs vs those who don't have a saltwater coast.
Colorado's religious conservatives are the truly hardcore - Focus on the Family etc, whom Santorum is pandering to (the same sort of people who would have called him a papist in the 50's) ... who think Mormons aren't really Christians.
CO
Date: 2012-02-08 08:12 pm (UTC)no subject
Date: 2012-02-08 08:13 pm (UTC)From a fiscal-conservative standpoint, this actually speaks well of him: he isn't spending money where it won't do him any good. The only caucus state he spent time and money in was Iowa, and that's because nobody takes you seriously if you blow off Iowa altogether. Consider it "spring training".
I agree with you: if Romney doesn't pick up 7 or 8 on Super Tuesday, then we can say that the GOP Establishment is losing its clout.
no subject
Date: 2012-02-08 09:00 pm (UTC)If so, then how is it that Santorum is now in second place? According to the NYTimes (http://elections.nytimes.com/2012/primaries/delegates) Santorum picked up all 37 of MN's delegates and 15 of CO's. It's true that caucus state delegates can switch their allegiance at the convention, but if Santorum continues to win caucuses in the flyover states his delegates won't jump ship until another candidate arithmetically locks up the nomination.
no subject
Date: 2012-02-08 09:52 pm (UTC)no subject
Date: 2012-02-08 09:03 pm (UTC)