Voted

[drwex]

The polling place itself was very smoothly run, though busy. The big delays were in the drive/parking and walking. There were lots of cops around doing their best, but it was a crowded election station.

This is also the first time in my memory of voting there that we've had (local) candidates actually at the poll place asking for votes. Two, no less. We have tight local races as well as an expensive contested state senate race so there's a lot of attention today.

The presidential is a gimme - we had Romney as governor and most of us remember how bad that was. If he loses here by less than 20 points I'll be surprised.

Nationally, my bet is on Obama to take the popular vote by 1-2% and the electoral college by a significant margin. All these media types blathering on about a close race and the possibility of an electoral college tie are just puffing wind to justify their jobs.

Comments

[chienne-folle.livejournal.com]

Nationally, my bet is on Obama to take the popular vote by 1-2% and the electoral college by a significant margin. All these media types blathering on about a close race and the possibility of an electoral college tie are just puffing wind to justify their jobs.

I'm really glad to hear you say that!

I haven't been following the political news, because I know who I'm voting for, so I don't need the information in order to make an informed vote. And reading the political news just makes me crazy. I can't stand how the Republicans get away with flat-out LYING all the time, and it makes me so sad and so angry that it has a strongly negative effect on my health.

You know how, in logic puzzles, they sometimes have a country where everybody tells the truth? I want to live THERE. :-)

[drwex]

In this case I don't think the journos are so much "lying" as being selectively blind to the electoral math in an effort to generate interest/pageviews/money. The national popular vote is indeed close. Certainly within a couple points and likely within the margin of error in many places. But as more analytical reports have noted we don't elect a president by popular vote. Obama has a sufficiently solid lead in states with a large number of delegates - the so-called "firewall" - that even if he does badly in popular voting nationwide he's still likely to win the electoral college.

For the record, I was and still am opposed to the national popular vote as I think it gives disproportionate power to populous states such as TX and CA, and we see where _that_ got us with school textbooks. I am in favor of states changing from winner-take-all delegates to an apportioned system, which might reflect state-level popular voting or district-level selection. Each of those has some advantages.

[chienne-folle.livejournal.com]

I didn't say the JOURNALISTS were lying; I said the REPUBLICANS were lying. Big difference!

Thanks for your thoughts on the implications of switching to a national popular vote system; I'll have to chew on those.

[trowa-barton.livejournal.com]

I am curious about Florida. I've been there. I lived there (and regretted it). I told you about the billboards. It's so polarized and divided. I wouldn't be surprised if Romney takes Florida, along with North Carolina.

[drwex]

I'd be stunned if Romney lost NC.

FL is a more interesting case. 538 has tipped it slightly blue of late. The argument goes like this: Florida has a big Hispanic community, yes. Historically that's been Cuban and descendants - staunchly right-wing and likely to vote Republican. But between 2008 and 2012 something interesting happened - Florida's Hispanic community is now majority Mexican. And they do not share the politics of the Cuban-Americans. Romney's small-tent strategy wasn't friendly to Hispanics of his party, who would have liked to see Rubio on the ticket.

Then there's the evangelical vote. I'm still unconvinced that they are enthusiastic about Romney. They have no reason to like Obama and maybe voting against Obama is enough to bring them out in numbers, but maybe they'll just sit this one out.

Finally there's the senior population. It, too, is dwindling, but unlike Hispanic voters, older voters tend to turn out in high proportion to their population. Ryan did not make any friends in that group, that's for sure. Has the R&R ticket turned that negative around? Maybe. But I'm not convinced.

These three things make me think FL is more of a toss-up than people expect. THAT said, Obama can lose FL and still have a comfortable margin. Romney would have to win FL _and_ a couple others like VA and OH that I think he'll lose.