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drwexYou people keep encouraging me, and I have this stuff rattling around in my brain.
My prediction at this point is that a deal will not be reached before Congress recesses for the holidays. However, we'll get a deal not long into January, likely in time for the State of the Union speech.
In short, it's all about John Boehner and the war going on inside the Republican party. It's not well-reported, but you need to remember that last year before the election craziness started, Boehnor had negotiated a so-called Grand Compromise on the budget. He had gotten Obama to agree to about $10 in cuts for every $1 of new revenue, and most of what the Republicans wanted was in the package. Boehnor took this deal back to his team and they said "no".
Republican demagogues held the day, and Boehnor had to back away from his own package. He looked bad. The Tea Party insurgents had cut the legs out from under the establishment and set the stage for the primary contest. You might have noticed that Boehnor was conspicuously absent from the public eye much of the campaign. His name wasn't even mentioned as a possible VP candidate, despite Ohio (his home state) being a swing state and hotly contested by the Republicans.
Machine politicians - of which Boehnor is a par excellence example - do not forget these things. So after the election, Dick Armey comes out and flat-out calls Tea Party candidates "dumb". Armey left the House for Freedomworks - a big Tea Party backer - and now he's left there. Then Jim DeMint (another Tea Party darling) leaves the Senate and the conservative columnists shed no tears over that. Finally, Boehnor makes his move, cutting four Republicans out of plum committee posts.
Why? Because they were notorious for voting against the machine/leadership line. Boehnor is getting all his ducks in a row and making sure he doesn't get embarrassed again when he goes to do a deal. It's particularly galling because the deal he's going to get this time around is worse than the one he got forced to walk away from, but he has to pass it.
It has to pass because the Republicans need to prove they can get something done. They need to prove that they're able to make principled changes that satisfy their base without pissing off the other 70% of the country. And it has to get done because I think Boehnor wants to run for President next time around. If he can't get stuff done, get his name associated with a big deal that "saves" the economy, etc. then he's got nothing. He may even lose his reelection bid next go 'round, depending on just how blue Ohio trends in the next 18 months. On the other hand, if he's holding a big fat trophy in his hands he'll win his seat back easily, probably keep the House leadership spot, and be the darling of the Republican establishment against the next round of Tea Party insurgents.
Boehnor's smart, and he's got his eyes on the horizon. He's talking tough both about the President and to his own caucus members, and then he's getting invited to closed-door meetings at the White House. I don't think he can force his party in line in the next 10 days or so before recess, but I'm pretty sure he can do it either shortly afterward, or when the new House is seated.
My prediction at this point is that a deal will not be reached before Congress recesses for the holidays. However, we'll get a deal not long into January, likely in time for the State of the Union speech.
In short, it's all about John Boehner and the war going on inside the Republican party. It's not well-reported, but you need to remember that last year before the election craziness started, Boehnor had negotiated a so-called Grand Compromise on the budget. He had gotten Obama to agree to about $10 in cuts for every $1 of new revenue, and most of what the Republicans wanted was in the package. Boehnor took this deal back to his team and they said "no".
Republican demagogues held the day, and Boehnor had to back away from his own package. He looked bad. The Tea Party insurgents had cut the legs out from under the establishment and set the stage for the primary contest. You might have noticed that Boehnor was conspicuously absent from the public eye much of the campaign. His name wasn't even mentioned as a possible VP candidate, despite Ohio (his home state) being a swing state and hotly contested by the Republicans.
Machine politicians - of which Boehnor is a par excellence example - do not forget these things. So after the election, Dick Armey comes out and flat-out calls Tea Party candidates "dumb". Armey left the House for Freedomworks - a big Tea Party backer - and now he's left there. Then Jim DeMint (another Tea Party darling) leaves the Senate and the conservative columnists shed no tears over that. Finally, Boehnor makes his move, cutting four Republicans out of plum committee posts.
Why? Because they were notorious for voting against the machine/leadership line. Boehnor is getting all his ducks in a row and making sure he doesn't get embarrassed again when he goes to do a deal. It's particularly galling because the deal he's going to get this time around is worse than the one he got forced to walk away from, but he has to pass it.
It has to pass because the Republicans need to prove they can get something done. They need to prove that they're able to make principled changes that satisfy their base without pissing off the other 70% of the country. And it has to get done because I think Boehnor wants to run for President next time around. If he can't get stuff done, get his name associated with a big deal that "saves" the economy, etc. then he's got nothing. He may even lose his reelection bid next go 'round, depending on just how blue Ohio trends in the next 18 months. On the other hand, if he's holding a big fat trophy in his hands he'll win his seat back easily, probably keep the House leadership spot, and be the darling of the Republican establishment against the next round of Tea Party insurgents.
Boehnor's smart, and he's got his eyes on the horizon. He's talking tough both about the President and to his own caucus members, and then he's getting invited to closed-door meetings at the White House. I don't think he can force his party in line in the next 10 days or so before recess, but I'm pretty sure he can do it either shortly afterward, or when the new House is seated.
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no subject
Date: 2012-12-10 06:39 pm (UTC)My big worry is that the GOP will give on a small increase on taxes to the upper 2% and then savage social security, medicare, etc. They'll say "we threw Norquist under the bus and now you have to kill off entitlement programs that you love so much". And frankly, I don't think Obama has been too serious about stopping that. We won't hear anything about reducing military expenditures I'm sure.
later
Tom
no subject
Date: 2012-12-10 06:43 pm (UTC)no subject
Date: 2012-12-11 09:57 am (UTC)no subject
Date: 2012-12-11 11:43 am (UTC)no subject
Date: 2012-12-15 10:55 am (UTC)no subject
Date: 2012-12-15 12:43 pm (UTC)