So Boehner is out (1 of N)

[drwex]

In case you're not hooked up to an IV of news, the top story right this moment is John Boehner's resignation not just as Speaker but from Congress entirely.

There will be lots of words of analysis written about this, but the first thought that hit me after reading the headline was "Oh, dear, Jeb Bush is in a lot of trouble now."

Bush is clearly the anointed nominee of the Machine Republicans. After three election cycles of infighting and the Machine crushing the rebels and then losing the general election it's been interesting watching the insurgent candidates maintain their hold on the top spots as the Republican primary season starts in earnest. Carson and Trump have continued to hold leads as the field has begun to narrow and it's clear that if the Establishment doesn't unify behind someone it's going to lose to - at a minimum - Trump's money. The only candidate who can put that kind of cash together now from the Establishment side is Bush.

One of the Machine's strongest personifications has been Boehnor. And if he's out, Bush is minus a huge ally and it's a sign that the Establishment power structure isn't as strong as it has appeared and isn't as reliable an ally as Bush is going to need. Jeb has some very sleepless nights coming up.

Stay tuned, it's about to get interesting.

Comments

[meadmaker.livejournal.com]

What I read suggested that Boehner made a deal so that we wouldn't see another round of Congress failing to create a budget, or failing to create a budget with any hope of being enacted. People seem to have come away saying that they're not going to try to torpedo the budget, and in exchange Boehner will go away. Whatever else, I suspect that there is a large amount of altruism in his motivations here.

I wonder if this might be a way to free himself up for a VP slot, though?

[drwex]

But Veep for whom? And why would he trade one of the most actually powerful positions in the government for a ceremonial one?

Yeah, I read the same deal-making. Maybe it'll hold up, or maybe not. He might just be putting a good face on the inevitability of getting fired by his own caucus, or at least the insane power-hungry wing of it.

I think it's much more likely a smart guy reading the writing on the wall and knowing when to quit. He's not exactly ahead, but he's not entirely disgraced, yet.

[donnad.livejournal.com]

Because the "ceremonial" position would be one step closer to POTUS. My first thought was: Is he planning to throw his hat into the ring too. Maybe not this year, but in four years... Who knows.

[drwex]

I agree that he's got to be thinking about a POTUS run, but not this cycle. I think a lot depends on who wins next year - he's way more likely to come out against a Democrat than a member of his own party. And if he has to wait 8 years that makes him... 73 I think? Not entirely too old but definitely a disadvantage.

If Jeb Bush somehow flames out and the Establishment finds itself floundering about for an anyone-but-Trump candidate he might go in this year, but it's late and wildly improbable.

[ceo]

I don't know that he made a deal. My read is he either knew he couldn't win this fight (where "win" means getting an appropriations bill past that doesn't defund Planned Parenthood with a majority of his caucus), or just got sick of this shit, so he announced his resignation and will spend the rest of his time as Speaker getting things passed with Democratic help and telling the wingnuts to go fuck themselves. Which is good in the short term, but then we'll probably get one of said wingnuts as the next Speaker and it'll all go to hell. That, however, will likely end up being good for the Democrats.

[dcltdw]

One of the earlier arguments from the Weekly Sift is that, so far, Trump has yet to spend significant money: no field offices, no TV ads. As such, the author wasn't taking Trump too seriously.

I find it amusing that Jeb! is such a poor candidate, I've read articles that apparently people are talking to Romney again.

[drwex]

Jeb hasn't been able to distinguish himself from the pack in large part because Trump has succeeded in sucking all the oxygen from the room. But don't count Jeb out yet - he's got a good ground game and I would not be at all surprised to see Jeb come out on top or at least second in February.

However, the importance of that is diminished by the mega-primary that follows. Something like 1/3 of states will hold a joint primary. Here's a good visual for it: http://frontloading.blogspot.com/p/2016-presidential-primary-calendar.html

That's TX, FL, OH, VA and almost all of the south. If anyone thinks free media is going to carry Trump through that they're dreaming. He'll spend, and spend big, or flame out. I expect the Republican field to be down to three people by the end of March, though I admit Fiorina is something of a wildcard. So maybe I should hedge my bet and say four.

[dcltdw]

That was the author's point: when money for a ground game becomes germane, Trump will quit, citing a toxic media. In the meantime, he's gotten name recognition he'd have no chance to buy in the interim, which is the whole point.