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drwexHonestly, very little has changed in the past couple weeks.
Democrats
Clinton had some wins, then Sanders had some wins, the last of which were big. One the one hand, momentum. On the other hand, he's going to have to keep winning by those same big margins to make up enough ground all the way to the convention. I expect him to do well, but not that well. New York will be telling, and news stories say that Sanders has opened an office there and is playing up his birthplace. Clinton still has a huge advantage, though.
As I've been expecting, Sanders is staying in for the long haul. I think this is good for both candidates, and good for the party. It's also shaping debate in directions I'd like to see it going, so I'm personally happy about it. I expect Ms Clinton to be the nominee and I expect to vote for her, but I also see a path where the left wing of her constituency keeps her more firmly anchored. My problem with Clinton is almost never her positions (militarism and trade excepted) but her follow-through. Having her feet held to the fire is good for follow-through and it's going to make her a sharper candidate for the general election.
It's also possible we'd seen a Clinton-Sanders ticket but I think that's unlikely. I don't think Sanders is in this for the mostly ceremonial #2 job. I think he'll get some planks in the platform and maybe a position in the next administration. I think Robert Reich was able to accomplish some significant good across three administrations and Sanders could do likewise.
Republicans
Trump's roll continues and the Establishment's flailing continues. The most interesting contretemps of the past couple weeks was the plea from the anyone-but-Trump folks to Kasich to drop out and Kasich telling them to screw off. That, to me, makes clear that he's running for VP under Trump, probably assuming it would be a one-term presidency and he could launch a stronger Presidential bid in four years himself. He has to know that staying in the race is going to alienate Cruz and much of the establishment, which means Kasich gets nothing if Cruz is the nominee and nearly nothing out of a brokered convention that picks another candidate.
The second-most interesting contretemps is how Cruz has maneuvered things so that the press is already treating it like a two-person race by taking up Trump bait. There seems to be this thing about Trump insulting Cruz's wife and Cruz defending her and hey, look all the stories are suddenly about these two guys and whats-his-name is nowhere in the press. It's ludicrous on one level (seriously, two guys running for arguably the most powerful elected office in the world are fighting over spouse insults?) and on another level it may be a sign that Cruz is learning to play Trump's game and not get whipped at it. Probably too late, but maybe not. In some lights this is a good thing for the Democrats because otherwise the Republicans would be making even more national-security-fear-state hay over the latest terrorist attacks on Europe and the Middle East. But they're too busy oozing testosterone to pay attention to minor details like people dying.
Trump continues to underperform the numbers he'll need to lock up the convention but not by a whole lot. Interestingly if he's going to lose ground it might be with women who identify as Republican or vote that way in primaries. Polls seem to indicate that this wife slap-fight is alienating women even more. Trump's numbers among female voters have never been good and they're sliding further as this my-wife/your-wife thing continues to get play. I don't think Cruz is going to benefit all that much in the short term, nor Hilary in the long term, but Trump needs to build his numbers not let them slip.
Democrats
Clinton had some wins, then Sanders had some wins, the last of which were big. One the one hand, momentum. On the other hand, he's going to have to keep winning by those same big margins to make up enough ground all the way to the convention. I expect him to do well, but not that well. New York will be telling, and news stories say that Sanders has opened an office there and is playing up his birthplace. Clinton still has a huge advantage, though.
As I've been expecting, Sanders is staying in for the long haul. I think this is good for both candidates, and good for the party. It's also shaping debate in directions I'd like to see it going, so I'm personally happy about it. I expect Ms Clinton to be the nominee and I expect to vote for her, but I also see a path where the left wing of her constituency keeps her more firmly anchored. My problem with Clinton is almost never her positions (militarism and trade excepted) but her follow-through. Having her feet held to the fire is good for follow-through and it's going to make her a sharper candidate for the general election.
It's also possible we'd seen a Clinton-Sanders ticket but I think that's unlikely. I don't think Sanders is in this for the mostly ceremonial #2 job. I think he'll get some planks in the platform and maybe a position in the next administration. I think Robert Reich was able to accomplish some significant good across three administrations and Sanders could do likewise.
Republicans
Trump's roll continues and the Establishment's flailing continues. The most interesting contretemps of the past couple weeks was the plea from the anyone-but-Trump folks to Kasich to drop out and Kasich telling them to screw off. That, to me, makes clear that he's running for VP under Trump, probably assuming it would be a one-term presidency and he could launch a stronger Presidential bid in four years himself. He has to know that staying in the race is going to alienate Cruz and much of the establishment, which means Kasich gets nothing if Cruz is the nominee and nearly nothing out of a brokered convention that picks another candidate.
The second-most interesting contretemps is how Cruz has maneuvered things so that the press is already treating it like a two-person race by taking up Trump bait. There seems to be this thing about Trump insulting Cruz's wife and Cruz defending her and hey, look all the stories are suddenly about these two guys and whats-his-name is nowhere in the press. It's ludicrous on one level (seriously, two guys running for arguably the most powerful elected office in the world are fighting over spouse insults?) and on another level it may be a sign that Cruz is learning to play Trump's game and not get whipped at it. Probably too late, but maybe not. In some lights this is a good thing for the Democrats because otherwise the Republicans would be making even more national-security-fear-state hay over the latest terrorist attacks on Europe and the Middle East. But they're too busy oozing testosterone to pay attention to minor details like people dying.
Trump continues to underperform the numbers he'll need to lock up the convention but not by a whole lot. Interestingly if he's going to lose ground it might be with women who identify as Republican or vote that way in primaries. Polls seem to indicate that this wife slap-fight is alienating women even more. Trump's numbers among female voters have never been good and they're sliding further as this my-wife/your-wife thing continues to get play. I don't think Cruz is going to benefit all that much in the short term, nor Hilary in the long term, but Trump needs to build his numbers not let them slip.
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no subject
Date: 2016-03-29 08:49 pm (UTC)As for the GOP, it's always been about ego rather than the need for party unity. Party unity left once Trump became the front-runner.