Talking points and actual points (politics)

[drwex]

New York's primary didn't change much, if anything. Let's review the talking points and actual points (like delegate and vote counts).

Sanders - "I still have a path to the presidency." No, I'm sorry, you don't. You brought your A game and Clinton beat you by 16 percentage points. The next couple of big contests (PA and later CA) aren't going to be any kinder to you. Without a big win in a big contest Sanders has no hope of closing the gap.

Clinton - "Our similarities are greater than our differences." That only works because the other guys have gone so far out into left field that they're catching the bus that pulls up behind the bleacher seats. Also, we completely know you're going to zig right as soon as you get that nomination handshake. I'm having a hard time figuring out who Clinton picks as a running mate now. Just like there were few obvious choices to run against her in the primary I don't see a lot of obvious choices to run with her in the general election.

Trump - "The nomination is sewn up." No, sorry. You won by a big margin and congrats on that but even this big of a win (and shutting out Cruz entirely was important) does not give you the math you need. Also, your lead on Cruz in CA is under 10 points now so you don't dare turn your back on him.

Crux - "I'm going to win it on the second ballot." Eh, mebbee. You also might die in the ensuing riot. I still think the Republican strategists are going to turtle this one. They'll let Trump have it, try to minimize losses down-ticket and in purple states and keep their eyes firmly fixed on 2020.

Kasich - "I'm still the only candidate who can beat Clinton." Yeah, but nobody's going to be backing you. Nice work cutting Cruz out, by the way. If the kinder gentler Trump continues to appear in public I can see these guys kissing and making up so Kasich gets the VP spot on the ticket. Talk about having your eyes on 2020 - or maybe he has a line on an iocane powder dealer.

All of these things were true before New York voted and they're still true after. Probably the most interesting story to me was how a very multiracial state managed to disenfranchise so many of its own citizens. Normally this is a "voting while black" kind of problem that doesn't get a lot of airplay.

Comments

[ron_newman]

- the other guys have gone so far out into left field

Wrong field ;-)

[tamidon.livejournal.com]

I've been hearing Joaquin or Julio Castro, out of Texas, are in the running for VP with Clinton

[drwex]

Yeah, a southern PoC, particularly Latino/a would fit the standard Dem playbook.

[davidfcooper.livejournal.com]

"Probably the most interesting story to me was how a very multiracial state managed to disenfranchise so many of its own citizens."

If you're referring to the purged voters, there is less there than meets the eye. The voters in question have not voted in two consecutive presidential elections and have not replied to multiple postal mail letters requesting that they update their registration. Those who have moved have a responsibility to notify the board of elections.

If you're referring to NY's closed rather than open primary, there are arguments pro and con for each type of primary. Anyone who has taken high school civics in the state of New York knows that registering as an independent (or with a third party) rather than as a Democrat or Republican is an act of deliberate self-disenfranchisement. Hold your nose if necessary and pick one, and in some solidly blue or red localities be sure to pick the one whose primaries matter. My paternal grandparents had been life-long Republicans when around 1960 they finally realized that the only local elections that mattered were the Democratic primaries and changed their registration to Democrat.

[vvalkyri.livejournal.com]

Yes, all of this. I explained the latter to someone about closed primaries (the pro for closed primaries is to look at VA, where many of my friends went and voted in the party-they-dislike'd primaries in order to push for the weaker candidate. If you don't really like the idea of that happening in your party's primaries you see the reason to have to pick an affiliation some time before last week.). NPR had an article about voter roll purge processes in the last day or two.

[vvalkyri.livejournal.com]

Re similarities/differences, comments on business insider's graph? http://www.businessinsider.com/hillary-clinton-vs-bernie-sanders-on-the-issues-2015-9

[drwex]

It's mostly correct to the level of short-phrase bullet points. I doubt Clinton is really opposed to TPP though.