Slow politics
Sep. 26th, 2018 01:28 pmLike a number of other commentators I've largely given up on trying to keep up with the stream of head-snapping political news. By the time I've sat down to digest and understand a political story, and decided I have something thoughtful to say, it's gone like Dorothy's house in the tornado.
Fortunately, there are people who get paid to do that kind of longer-arc analysis and it looks like one of them may have landed a big one. Professor Kathleen Hall Jamieson, of UPenn's Annenberg School and a founder of factcheck.org, is about to release what ought to be a bombshell of a political book.
https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2018/10/01/how-russia-helped-to-swing-the-election-for-trump
In the current climate I doubt this kind of thing will make an impact - positions are already hardened and nobody who still backs Trump will actually care about the subtle distinctions between "foreign agent" and "useful idiot" for Russia. Congress isn't going to prosecute either charge, anyway, and the President will continue to obstruct efforts to protect elections and investigate past malfeasance by those around him. The importance of this book is as historical record, as well as proof-in-fact.
As the New Yorker piece points out, much has been made of the idea that we "can't know" what influence Russia had and what the effect of that influence was. Professor Jamieson's scholarship stands in contrast to that dismissive attitude and is important in showing how we can actively set and follow standards for investigation. Airtight proof, such as you'd want in a criminal case, is extremely hard to come by - it's virtually unheard-of in social science research. But the "preponderance of evidence" standard is also viable, and something we use for many matters. That seems to be what Jamieson is going for here.
I will want to read this book, but the New Yorker delivers the punchline that has been circulating for some time - the election was tipped by getting people who would have voted to stay home, and encouraging others to come out. It was remarkably effective, using a few tens of thousands to counterweight three million. The question now is, what do you do about it?
Fortunately, there are people who get paid to do that kind of longer-arc analysis and it looks like one of them may have landed a big one. Professor Kathleen Hall Jamieson, of UPenn's Annenberg School and a founder of factcheck.org, is about to release what ought to be a bombshell of a political book.
https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2018/10/01/how-russia-helped-to-swing-the-election-for-trump
In the current climate I doubt this kind of thing will make an impact - positions are already hardened and nobody who still backs Trump will actually care about the subtle distinctions between "foreign agent" and "useful idiot" for Russia. Congress isn't going to prosecute either charge, anyway, and the President will continue to obstruct efforts to protect elections and investigate past malfeasance by those around him. The importance of this book is as historical record, as well as proof-in-fact.
As the New Yorker piece points out, much has been made of the idea that we "can't know" what influence Russia had and what the effect of that influence was. Professor Jamieson's scholarship stands in contrast to that dismissive attitude and is important in showing how we can actively set and follow standards for investigation. Airtight proof, such as you'd want in a criminal case, is extremely hard to come by - it's virtually unheard-of in social science research. But the "preponderance of evidence" standard is also viable, and something we use for many matters. That seems to be what Jamieson is going for here.
I will want to read this book, but the New Yorker delivers the punchline that has been circulating for some time - the election was tipped by getting people who would have voted to stay home, and encouraging others to come out. It was remarkably effective, using a few tens of thousands to counterweight three million. The question now is, what do you do about it?