Romney to "win" tonight

[drwex]

Romney should take both contests today, for all the good it will do him.

I expect Romney to win Michigan by a few points and Arizona by a lot. But it doesn't really matter. A while back I said that Santorum couldn't win but he sure could make Romney lose and that's exactly what's happening. He's managed to drag Romney into his Pit of Insanity in which putting your kids through college is bad, birth control is bad, JFK is bad, and so on. This stuff might play well to the faithful, but they are not popular views with the non-ardent/independent voters. Santorum has also made Romney flip positions on access to birth control, global warming, and who knows what else. I'm picturing the presidential debates in a few months, like this:

Obama: On $date you said your position on global warming was A. Then on $date you said it was not-A. What _do_ you believe about global warming?

Romney: err, ah, um...

Obama: On $date you said your position on birth control for women was B. Then on $date you said it was not-B. What _do_ you believe about birth control for women?

And on and on and on. Six months ago I thought Obama would have an uphill climb to get re-elected. At this point, unless the economy totally tanks or the Republicans can somehow pull out another November Surprise, it's looking like a walk-away. The fact that noise about a brokered convention, or a last-minute candidate has surfaced again just shows how badly damaged Romney is. The only way he could beat Obama is if he somehow got a Whole Personality Transplant. Obama may yet beat himself, particularly if the Republicans in Congress manage to keep tarring him with stupid crap, but Romney won't beat him.

And just for the record, where the FUCK does someone with three higher-ed degrees get off on railing against colleges? (BA, MBA, JD) And how the hell does Santorum keep painting himself as a Washington "outsider"? Do you all know what he's been doing after 12 years in Congress? Consulted for the lobby industry. Lives in a DC suburb. Makes half a million a year from beltway bandit firms. Seriously, this guy is wound so tight in crazy it's a wonder he can breathe.

Comments

[bluegargantua]

And Michigan's delegates are awarded proportionally. So if Romney doesn't win by much, he doesn't get that many extra delegates. I'm told that MI delegates aren't a tightly bound to the person they're supposed to vote for at the convention, but it could still be a very Pyrrhic victory today. Five-Thirty-Eight still has Santorum leading in Ohio and that would be a huge setback for Romney.

I guess the only bad thing about all of this is that if Santorum does eke out a win and becomes the nominee, we're going to find out just how strong the ultra-conservative base in America really is and I'm terrified what happens if the answer doesn't go my way.

later
Tom

[drwex]

yeah, FiveThirtyEight had a discussion of the Republican rules on delegates and it's complicated as all get-out. There is a mathematically realistic chance of a brokered convention, but it would be an utter PR disaster for the party.

I expect Santorum to take Ohio. Romney has struggled badly in the midwest/rust belt but it's not simple. All the Republican candidates opposed the auto bailout so that's a toss-up. That part of the country is still strongly red and you see a large streak of resentment at the Feds for the help, rather than gratitude. I expect those states to stay red in the presidential contest, sadly.

There's no way that Santorum is going to be the nominee. And if he is, he'll be crushed. This is the guy who lost his re-election bid by the largest margin in approximately ever.

[vvalkyri.livejournal.com]

oh have they started letting candidates ask each other questions?

[drwex]

There is usually at least one debate that is structured as a face-to-face. But even if Obama can't ask the question himself, any friendly proxy can. The point being that the entire discussion focuses on Romney's lack of principles and flip-flopping. If Romney has to play defense all campaign he's sunk. He sucks at defense. Where he's shown himself well is in attacking Obama and recently attacking his opponents. Credit him with sinking Gingrich at least.

[sariel-t.livejournal.com]

Well then.

*leaves a pebble*

[pierceheart.livejournal.com]

And I love that this is basically hurting Romney's chances in the general ...
Except.

When he gets trounced by Obama, do you think the GOP primary voters are going to take away that it was because he was pushed too far right, or do you think that they will take away that it was because he wasn't right enough?

[drwex]

Honestly I don't give a rat's ass about GOP primary voters. My instinct is that if they end up with a mediocre candidate and lose in November it's going to be somewhat like what happened in MA after Scott Brown won. People will go "WTF" and put up a better candidate next time.

There are a decent handful of people in the Republican camp who could make for good and interesting Presidential candidates. None of them happen to be in this race, which I think is the last throes of batshit insane.

Like it or not, the country has been trending drastically rightward in the past 4 decades or so. Remember Bush complaining that Clinton was running to the right of _him_ on several issues? The odds of anyone with something close to my views being nominated by either party is near zero, so I'd be happy if we could just rid the process of proudly stupid and badshit insane.

[bluegargantua]

I think the interesting GOP candidates saw how the Tea Party people were imploding, saw the other knuckleheads jumping into the race and decided to play it safe and sit out the next four years. In 2016 will be a better time to run. The Dems have to put up someone (and maybe it'll be Joe Biden's turn to pull a Gore) and the open field makes it easier to run on "where's the country headed" vs. "I'll be better than the incumbent".

later
Tom

[woodwardiocom.livejournal.com]

Heck, I think the prudent GOP candidates decided they had better things to do than lose to Obama. It's possible to oust an incumbent, but that's not where smart money lies.

[hammercock.livejournal.com]

The odds of anyone with something close to my views being nominated by either party is near zero, so I'd be happy if we could just rid the process of proudly stupid and badshit insane.

Gah. Yes. Exactly.

[stevie-stever.livejournal.com]

And just for the record, where the FUCK does someone with three higher-ed degrees get off on railing against colleges? (BA, MBA, JD) And how the hell does Santorum keep painting himself as a Washington "outsider"? Do you all know what he's been doing after 12 years in Congress? Consulted for the lobby industry. Lives in a DC suburb. Makes half a million a year from beltway bandit firms. Seriously, this guy is wound so tight in crazy it's a wonder he can breathe.


With enough in campaign contributions, you can cast yourself as whatever the hell you want, and with the Republican brand, the faithful in the party stand a chance of buying it.

[hammercock.livejournal.com]

"Pay no attention to that man behind the curtain."

[chienne-folle.livejournal.com]

Santorum has also made Romney flip positions on access to birth control, global warming, and who knows what else. I'm picturing the presidential debates in a few months, like this:

Obama: On $date you said your position on global warming was A. Then on $date you said it was not-A. What _do_ you believe about global warming?

Romney: err, ah, um...

Obama: On $date you said your position on birth control for women was B. Then on $date you said it was not-B. What _do_ you believe about birth control for women?

This assumes that voters 1) care about the candidates' actual positions, and 2) can reason logically. As far as I can tell, huge swathes of the electorate vote for the person they think is the most likable, and much of the electorate wouldn't recognize logical thinking if it bit them on the leg.

I find Obama more likable than Romney, but then, I found Gore more likable than Bush. Stilted professor beats smirking frat boy all hollow in MY personal hit parade, so I know I have no idea what other Americans will like.

I wish I were as optimistic as you are about Obama's chances against Romney. I do wish that. But my fellow Americans have convinced me that large numbers of them are just as stupid and crazy as the current crop of Republican candidates.

[docorion.livejournal.com]

Honestly, I'm with drwex on this one. The way I look at it, people in politics trend one of three ways. There's the vocally right, like Santorum and his crowd. There's the vocally left like, well, me and Wex. We talk a lot, we have a tendency to tell people what they should think and why, like that. you're right that the right, broadly speaking, tends to appeal to Scripture as their authority, and Wex and I tend to appeal to logic, but that leaves the third, and largest group: the people who just want to get their business done without much interference. However, by and large, this group hews partly to Scripture, and partly to logic, and they seem to be insulted if a candidate gives insufficient respect to either. As a result, people like Santorum, when it comes to a general election, are unlikely to win (in my sole and naturally brilliant opinion). The "silent majority" gives them short shrift and elects the person who, bluntly, isn't crazy. Either left or right crazy (logic can lead to places just as stupid as Scripture, frankly).

Don't forget that half the US voted for stilted professor, at the time. It took the electoral college and the Supreme Court to make smirking frat boy president. So while I hear your concern and share some of it, I still believe that the people, broadly speaking, aren't entirely stupid. They can be fooled, and they're only somewhat smarter than their dumbest member, but they do tend, over time, to get it right, as they are given to see the right

[intuition-ist.livejournal.com]

It'd be nice if even one of the articles/debates/whatever mentioned how intelligence and the ability to analyze information actually *helps* someone lead competently once they're in office. stupidity seems to be the order of the day for the past decade. :(

[hammercock.livejournal.com]

Currently Romney is winning in Arizona, and it's too close to call in Michigan.