Is Rubio really rising?

[drwex]

Couldn't resist the alliteration. The news is all abuzz with how Rubio placed a "strong third" and "nearly beat Trump" in Iowa (both true). He's doing well in endorsements from fellow Republican Senators and positions himself as the Establishment candidate. In doing so he's trying to choke the last life out of Bush and Christie and may well succeed. Unless a miracle occurs Rubio is going to beat Christie soundly in NH and Christie should vanish after that. I continue to think that Bush will hang on until South Carolina but won't survive past that.

When trying to show his Establishment bona fides, Rubio likes to invoke Reagan - carefully steering away from the obvious comparisons between his political situation and that of Obama (young Senator, disadvantaged background, etc.). But Rubio and the supposed Establishment these days have moved so far away from Reagan that it's just depressing. Here, let me show you this:

As this spiritual awakening gathers strength, we must remember that many, in good faith, will hold other views. Let us pledge to conduct ourselves with generosity, tolerance and openness towards all. We must respect the rights and views of every American – because we are unshakably committed to democratic values. Our Maker would have us be no less.

That, dear readers, is President Reagan speaking. And not just off the cuff - those are from his remarks to a national gathering of Evangelical Christians. Can you imagine a Cruz or a Rubio speaking words like those? I can't.

Don't get me wrong, I lived under the Reagan Regime and his band of crooks - remember he surpassed Tricky Dick for most sitting and former Cabinet members indicted. I hated him and I loathe much of his legacy. Still do. But if Rubio's going to invoke the Reagan ghost then let's be clear just how big of a lie that is.

That the lie propagates at all is partly a testament to the failure of mainstream media and partly a yardstick by which we can measure how warped our political discourse has become. Yes, it took Obama seven years to go to a mosque and state clearly his belief that all faiths are welcome in America. That's shameful. But I can also see how - if he were President today - Reagan might have acted similarly. I cannot see a President Cruz or President Rubio taking this kind of step.

Back to upcoming politics for a moment - I think we'll be able to judge Rubio's rise by how he does against Kasich. There's an oft-repeated joke that Iowa picks corn and New Hampshire picks presidents. If Rubio can't climb to the second spot in NH it may be because Kasich or Sanders have absorbed the independents that'd come out to vote for him. Both Trump and Cruz have huge negatives with NH voters and I expect them both to fare much worse in NH than polls so far have indicated - that happened in Iowa so it's not particularly novel to suggest it'll happen again. I expect Rubio to place first or second in NH - he's no Reagan but he's rising.

Comments

[tamidon.livejournal.com]

I think mainstream Republicans, and the RNC, look at Rubio as their save from Trump and Cruz since Jeb looks dead in the water. If Jeb comes in 3rd, Jeb might get to hold onto some support. No one thinks Christie can win anything.

I think you're right

[drwex]

Bush was clearly supposed to be The Anointed One but he just kind of didn't show up for the game and when Trump sucked all the air out of the room he strangled. 538 Nate had a good essay comparing Trump to a stock bubble. Once the bubble is pricked it can collapse fast but it's not clear who'll fill that vacuum. Rubio has suddenly shot into the lead on 538's endorsement tracker, too. I don't think NH is going to be decisive for any of the front-runners but I expect the pack to thin dramatically next week.

Going to leave this here

[c1.livejournal.com]

All of what I'm hearing locally is Trump, not Rubio. 538's research lines up pretty well with that, too. Indeed, I can't think of a time when I've heard anyone talk about a GOP candidate other than Trump around here, with the possible exception of Rand Paul. The evangelicals are seen largely as batshit crazy, which puts Cruz right out, and Rubio gets tarred with that same brush. Trump, on the other hand seems to have captured a few ears. NH is more reliant on manufacturing than you might think, and so his message about putting foreign countries back in their place is very resonant.

http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/election-2016/primary-forecast/new-hampshire-republican/

RE: Going to leave this here

[drwex]

So if Trump is winning (and I honestly don't see what NH voters like in him) then the battle is for the #2 spot. I remain unconvinced, though, and am expecting Trump to underperform his polls again. Interesting to see if NH voters get just how radical-religious-right Rubio is.

Rand Paul is out, right?

Re: Going to leave this here

[c1.livejournal.com]

AFAIK Paul suspended his campaign the other day.

If you're really not seeing what NH likes in Trump, you really have to look harder at the foundations of the NH economy. Remember what brought down Bush Sr.

From personal experience, I saw what happened when a former employer shut down a factory up in the northern part of the state. That was a lot of good paying manufacturing jobs in an area that's seen a lot of decline. And the road to that decline starts in China and Mexico. (Note that I didn't say India. Those are tech jobs, and I'll bet you know more people in tech who work in MA than NH by at least an order of magnitude.)

For better or for worse, whenever Trump talks about bringing jobs back to the US, he's addressing the problem that a lot of people are feeling Obama has utterly ignored for seven years. People don't give a hoot about Obamacare, they need to put food on the table.

It was true in '92 and it's true today: "It's the economy, stupid."