A political update

[drwex]

Huntsman is out. I agree with Scalzi that he decided to cut his losses early and is probably angling for a Secretary of State position in a Romney administration. IMO he has the experience, the balls, and the brains to be a good one.

Romney took several solid hits in the debate but sadly they were delivered by Gingrich. The evangelicals decided they were backing Santorum, which means the votes of the not-Romney bloc are going to remain divided. Gingrich's good showing in the debate comes at Santorum's expense and is a gift to the Republican power-brokers who can (and should) see a Romney->Gingrich->Santorum finish order as a clear sign of the weakness of the evangelical contingent in the party. Unless Romney continues sleepwalking (and maybe even if he does) I don't see Gingrich beating him in SC. A G-R-S finish is just barely possible if the debate goes very badly for Romney, very well for Gingrich, and the Tea Party throws its weight behind Gingrich. Much more likely is R-G-S in which case the question remains how much above 25% can Romney get.

On the longer view, Gingrich's biggest haymaker against Romney is still the financial/tax returns issue, which is a very poor strategic bet for him to make. He can't beat Romney this way.

Comments

[feste-sylvain.livejournal.com]

I have exactly the reverse of your opinion about the relative sanity of Paul and Santorum.

Perhaps you missed an important part of what I said earlier: more than half of Republicans consider Paul electable. This is not "twice nothing".

Paul is anti-abortion. He justifies this by being all states-rights about it, except for things like military health coverage, where he'd have it banned.

You're probably right about Florida.

[c1.livejournal.com]

I concur on the abortion issue: Paul is pretty clear that he wants to see abortion curtailed. From his website: (http://www.ronpaul2012.com/the-issues/abortion/)

As an OB/GYN who delivered over 4,000 babies, Ron Paul knows firsthand how precious, fragile, and in need of protection life is.

Dr. Paul’s experience in science and medicine only reinforced his belief that life begins at conception, and he believes it would be inconsistent for him to champion personal liberty and a free society if he didn’t also advocate respecting the God-given right to life—for those born and unborn.

After being forced to witness an abortion being performed during his time in medical school, he knew from that moment on that his practice would focus on protecting life. And during his years in medicine, never once did he find an abortion necessary to save the life of a pregnant woman.

As a physician, Ron Paul consistently put his beliefs into practice and saved lives by helping women seek options other than abortion, including adoption. And as President, Ron Paul will continue to fight for the same pro-life solutions he has upheld in Congress, including:

* Immediately saving lives by effectively repealing Roe v. Wade and preventing activist judges from interfering with state decisions on life by removing abortion from federal court jurisdiction through legislation modeled after his “We the People Act.”

* Defining life as beginning at conception by passing a “Sanctity of Life Act.”

Because he agrees with Thomas Jefferson that it is “sinful and tyrannical” to “compel a man to furnish contributions of money for the propagation of opinions which he disbelieves and abhors,” Ron Paul will also protect the American people’s freedom of conscience by working to prohibit taxpayer funds from being used for abortions, Planned Parenthood, or any other so-called “family planning” program.

The strength of love for liberty in our society can be judged by how we treat the most innocent among us. It’s time to elect a President with the courage and conviction to stand up for every American’s right to life.

[drwex]

Well THAT's interesting. I had him down as pro-personal liberty and consequently pro-choice.

[c1.livejournal.com]

He's worth a vote in the primary, if for nothing else than he's the only GOP-er who wants to draw down the military, and that message needs to be broadcast a bit more -- America is relying too much on the military to be its main instrument of foreign policy, and I think the world is pretty sick of it now.
And really, he's too batshit insane to be actually electable, so it's a pretty safe ballot.
Romney, on the other hand, looks and sounds pretty presidential right now, and that's what scares me. If Romney wins the primaries, Obama's a four and out president. Paul is batshit insane, but he isn't dangerous, because everyone can see that he's batshit insane, plain as day. Romney is dangerous, because he's just as batshit insane, but he does an exemplary job of hiding it.

[drwex]

I don't count Obama out yet. Way too early. I also think that Obama's electoral fortunes depend much more on what the economy does in 2012 than anything else.

[c1.livejournal.com]

You heard it here first: The economy will be down for the count, barring any major miracles. Unemployment is still uncomfortably close to 10%, and to think that will be halved by November requires powerful hallucinogens. They're talking in louder tones about impending recession in Europe, which won't do the US economy any favours. Unless things remain substantially the same as they are now (I'm not going to be so naive as to think things will meaningfully improve; they'll get worse if anything at all) then Obama is a sitting duck come autumn.
I still contend that if Romney gets the GOP nomination, Obama gets fast tracked to the lecture circuit.

[pierceheart.livejournal.com]

He claims to be pro-personal liberty, unless it's women's health liberty, or the liberty of homosexuals to marry.

[drwex]

more than half of Republicans consider Paul electable.

Pfft. The bet stands. More than half of Republicans think the Tea Party is a good idea. Or did.

I continue to think Paul will do well in caucuses and small states where his organization shows strength, but he doesn't have the resources to compete in big states, particularly big media markets. His chances of getting the nomination still == 0.

[feste-sylvain.livejournal.com]

Well, he will most likely not be the candidate. It would take a major scandal on Romney's part to allow Paul to pull ahead.

I still believe that he will show, that is, come in third behind Romney and Gingrich in South Carolina. Given Gingrich's ridiculous response to Romney admitting that he pays a lower tax percentage than middle-class Americans, I predict a Romney victory, but there's still time for Gingrich to convince South Carolina Republicans that he's closer to their views than Milquetoast Romney.

Santorum is finally being recognized as a joke, just as Bachmann was. He will not beat Paul, even in South Carolina.

[drwex]

Hurm. Maybe. I'm less certain than I was 48 hours ago. Both Paul and Romney are going light on events in S.C. but on the other hand Santorum appears to be fading fast. Gingrich is picking up conservative voters that I thought would have swung to Santorum and even Perry is showing gains. In the end that's better for Romney as the anyone-but vote is now splitting three ways. Romney is now taking heat even from people who nominally support him such as Christie. If he is at all smart he'll make hay in the next debate by pointing out that his rivals' tax plans would drop the Romney rate to 0 so why do they care so much about his tax returns. He has to stop pretending he's running against Obama and start hitting back at the gang of four.

If the GoF have any brains at all they'll combine forces after S.C. behind whoever comes second and hope that person can beat Mitt in Florida. I still think Romney's going to take both SC and FL and have it sewn up at that point.